US-Philippine drills a further sign Manila may be picking sides amid South China Sea, Taiwan tensions
- The scale and context of this year’s Balikatan exercises reflect a shift in geopolitical concerns and Philippines’ growing role in regional security
- Manila’s recent security moves may create the impression that it’s writing Washington a blank cheque, and affect how it’s viewed by its neighbours
US, Philippines follow Taiwan drills with biggest exercises in over 30 years
The new sites represent a bold step considering that none of the earlier five EDCA areas agreed upon in 2014 directly stared at any flashpoints. Basa Airbase in Pampanga is relatively close to the West Philippine Sea, but is still further inland. Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan faces the Sulu Sea. It is also the first time that a naval base – Camilo Osias in Cagayan – is included.
While the five original EDCA locations are existing Philippine military bases, the four new additions include one civilian airport (Lal-lo in Cagayan) and a remote island (Balabac) sitting astride vital surface and submarine traffic routes.
The locations for the exercises are also telling. Batanes province (less than 161km from Taiwan) and Ilocos Norte in Luzon are both in the north, while Zambales and Palawan are washed by the West Philippine Sea.
The exercise activities include maritime security, amphibious and aviation operations, live-fire training and cyber defence. In Zambales, participants will sink a target ship through coordinated land and air strikes, a first of its kind. In Palawan, allied militaries will simulate retaking an island captured by enemy forces.
The equipment that will see action includes mobile land-based Patriot and Avenger missiles and HIMARS rockets. If deployed in northern Luzon and Palawan, they can put targets in waters off southern Taiwan and the South China Sea within range.
These exercise activities and equipment are recent additions to Balikatan and may have greater resonance given growing regional tensions. For instance, the reappearance of US rocket and missile platforms raised speculation about their possible pre-positioning in agreed EDCA sites.
Spectre of conflict
While taking part in multilateral exercises might not raise eyebrows, joint patrols are another matter altogether. The latter may be interpreted as signing on to America’s strategy of integrated deterrence against China. It may also raise the spectre of accidents in choppy waters. Some may see the presence of foreign navies patrolling their maritime entitlements as a derogation of their sovereignty and jurisdiction. Bilateral and regional efforts at handling the disputes, including ongoing Asean-China Code of Conduct negotiations, could also be complicated.
Philippines will not let US access military sites for ‘offensive action’
China, as expected, expressed serious concerns over the Philippines’ decision. Granting extra EDCA sites in northern Luzon makes Manila second only to Tokyo among US allies to step up for a possible Taiwan Strait crisis. In contrast, Australia clarified that Aukus was not premised on the country joining Washington in such a contingency.
China’s response may now be contingent on what happens next, notably the kind of platforms that will be put in place at EDCA sites and how “joint sails” in the South China Sea pan out. Beijing may up the pressure on Manila in contested waters and consider economic measures, such as curbs on tourism and imports of Philippine agricultural produce. China is known to come down hard on countries that toe the line of its rival and undermine its interests.
In making bold decisions, one prepares for the worst and hopes for the best. Whether this is the case for the Philippines, only time can tell.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a Taiwan Fellow and a Visiting Scholar at National Chengchi University Department of Diplomacy and Centre for Foreign Policy Studies