The visit of former Philippine President President Rodrigo Duterte to China on Monday was a private effort to steady ties troubled by maritime incidents and Manila’s rapid tilt towards its long-time ally, the United States.
It was a surprise twist a week ahead of the second State of the Nation Address of his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, that put the country’s sharp foreign policy swings on the spot. While it’s unclear whether the trip had official blessing, Marcos said he welcomed “any new lines of communication” that can help.
China remains the Philippines’ largest trade partner. But unlike its other Southeast Asian neighbours, including fellow South China Sea claimants, attempts to cushion relations from the intractable sea spat has long proved to be elusive for Manila.
In the past, solons and taipans (lawmakers and business executives) have typically been approached to help de-escalate tensions discreetly. But former leaders usually have marginal influence in shaping the agenda of a sitting president – although some sought out their predecessors’ advice. Some ex-presidents have also been tasked with exploring reopening dialogue or signalling an interest in a detente.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr salutes a guard of honour during an event at Clark Air Base in Angeles City on July 3 to mark the Philippine Air Force’s anniversary. Photo: EPA-EFE
He eventually sent Ramos to meet Fu Ying, current chair of China’s National People’s Congress’ Foreign Affairs Committee and a former ambassador to Manila, and Wu Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies. Their August 2016 meeting in Hong Kong acted as an icebreaker, paving the way for Duterte’s first state visit to Beijing two months later. Incumbent Marcos himself describes Arroyo, who is now a deputy speaker of Congress, as his “secret weapon”, accompanying him in his travels to Beijing and Washington.
As the Philippines pivots to the US, concerns abound as to what the fallout will mean for relations with China. Duterte warned about the country inadvertently being dragged into a conflict over the Taiwan Strait after the US military was granted access to sites in northern Luzon close to the self-ruled island. The former leader also called for security safeguards as Washington asked Manila to temporarily accommodate Afghan refugees.
Duterte’s trip may have less to do with preserving his legacy or securing gains for his home island of Mindanao than acting as a subtle reminder of the importance of keeping stable and robust ties with Beijing. Marcos will deliver his second State of the Nation Address on Monday. And while many expect the maritime row to figure in his speech, many also hope to hear what he has in store for an economy trying to rebound from the pandemic. China cuts both ways.
Improving relations with China was one of the hallmark achievements of the popular but controversial Duterte. Under his watch, trade, investment, and tourism increased and Beijing became a force in Philippine infrastructure. China donated two bridges in Metro Manila, completed a river irrigation project in northern Luzon and is building a dam to enhance the water security of the capital region.
In the country’s second-largest island of Mindanao, cordial relations were a boon for tropical fruit growers as supplying China’s huge market meant greater demand for local bananas, pineapples and most recently durian. In Duterte’s hometown of Davao, Beijing is building a bridge to connect the city with neighbouring Samal Island and gave a grant to underwrite the construction of the Bucana Bridge. During the pandemic, China also donated face masks, test kits and vaccines.
The dominance of security issues has long strained Manila’s ability to corner and sustain Chinese largesse. A flurry of new China-backed projects going online – the latest of which is Southeast Asia’s first high-speed railway, connecting Jakarta to Bandung – may compel a rethink. The possible convening of the third Belt and Road Forum this year may renew momentum for three railway projects previously negotiated under Duterte.
Duterte’s approach of building a sturdy container first before raising difficult issues may offer lessons for Marcos. High-level diplomacy, a bilateral consultative mechanism and hotline communications were put in place to handle the territorial and maritime row. While these did not put an end to sea incidents, it enabled both sides to go beyond the disputes.
Duterte’s China visit can be situated in the broader context of ongoing efforts to foster dialogue despite tensions
And despite fostering cosy ties with Beijing, Duterte took unprecedented steps to bolster his country’s position in the flashpoint South China Sea. He dispatched his defence secretary and top military brass to hold a flag-raising ceremony in Pag-Asa, seat of the country’s administered features in the contested Spratly Islands, and upgraded the facilities therein. The mercurial leader also invested in modernising the country’s military and coastguard and raised a landmark arbitration ruling twice before the UN General Assembly.
Marcos recognised the contributions of his predecessor. In a speech he gave at an event organised by the Association for Philippines-China Understanding (APCU) in June, he said: “I join the entire nation in recognising the former president for his strong leadership and for all that he has done in building a more resilient nation.”
Duterte received an award for promoting sound bilateral relations. His former executive secretary, Salvador Medialdea – who joined him on his private trip to Beijing – collected the award on his behalf.
Marcos also acknowledged Arroyo’s role in reviving the APCU, which launched the yearly awards, saying that “she recognised the great importance of maintaining mutual understanding between our two countries”. He agreed that the South China Sea issue does not define and is not the sum total of bilateral relations. But domestic and external pressures weigh heavily on him.
Duterte’s China visit can be situated in the broader context of ongoing efforts to foster dialogue despite tensions. His trip came amid growing US overtures towards Beijing, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and climate special envoy John Kerry travelling to the Chinese capital in quick succession. A student delegation from mainland China is also visiting Taiwan, the first to do so in three years, reciprocating an earlier visit in the other direction led by ex-Taiwan leader Ma Ying-Jeou.
As the goal of diplomacy is so important, all channels, official or otherwise, should be harnessed.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, fellow at the University of the Philippines Korea Research Centre, lecturer at the Chinese Studies Programme at Ateneo de Manila University, and contributing editor (Reviews) for the Asian Politics & Policy Journal.
