Amid choppy South China Sea waters, Philippines and Beijing should boost dialogue to calm tense ties

The Philippines has been absent from recent China-organised meetings such as the third belt and road forum, a sign bilateral ties have turned worrying in a short time
Both sides should improve communication channels, dial down tensions and work on practical cooperation in the South China Sea

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Published: 10:00am, 19 Nov 2023

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Territorial and maritime disputes should not be the sum of bilateral ties, but with the South China Sea row between Manila and Beijing rearing its ugly head again, maintaining high-level security dialogue should be key to reducing tensions amid geopolitical skirmishes in the region.

In reality, both countries recognise this and have made efforts to boost ties. Three high-level Chinese officials visited the Philippines last year, while China expert and renowned journalist Jaime FlorCruz was appointed as Manila’s ambassador to Beijing.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the 2022 Apec summit in Bangkok, with Marcos Jnr later becoming the first head of state hosted by Beijing to start this year.

During his January visit, Marcos Jnr had renewed the Philippines’ interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, signing an agreement for cooperation.

Visiting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr (right) walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping after reviewing an honour guard during a welcome ceremony in Beijing on January 4. Photo: Xinhua via AP

All these are now a distant memory as relations quickly turned worrying.

In a sign of how the South China Sea dispute is beginning to affect constructive ties, Marcos Jnr was absent from the third belt and road forum last month in the Chinese capital.

In contrast, his regional peers were in attendance, including government leaders of South China Sea littoral states such as Malaysia’s Transport Minister Anthony Loke and Vietnam’s President Vo Van Thuong.

Unsurprisingly, talks about Chinese funding for three Philippine railway projects hit a snag. Economics should be insulated from disputes. The moment disputes spill over to economics is a time to reflect and review.

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The South China Sea row is not just between the Philippines and China, but why is it most toxic between these two claimants? Sea incidents have become more disturbing, from the use of lasers and water cannons to the risk of dangerous collisions and cat-and-mouse chases. There is no positive correlation between the noise and defending one’s position in the flashpoint.

Most disputants have been making headway in pursuing their interests in choppy waters discreetly and surreptitiously. There are clearly benefits to the latter approach.

The Philippines and China must therefore recognise the perils of allowing the situation to escalate further and work on dialling down tensions. They must stick to the message that maritime issues do not define bilateral ties, and improve communication channels with each other and their respective audiences. Both have to advertise the benefit of broader positive relations and highlight the potential for further gains if differences are managed well.

Chinese coastguard personnel sailing aluminium hulled boats at Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on November 10. Photo: AFP

Maintaining high-level security dialogue is important. At the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum last month, several Asean defence ministers were in attendance, while the US and its allies, such as South Korea, Australia and Japan, also sent delegates. In the past, the Philippines sent its defence undersecretary to attend the event. Downgrading participation in light of recent developments may be understandable, but outright absence is a missed opportunity and only reveals the sorry state of relations.

It is baffling for Manila to shun such venues when even the US is trying hard to boost dialogue with China, as seen in President Joe Biden’s meeting with Xi on Wednesday on the sidelines of the 30th Apec summit in San Francisco.

Issues of sovereignty, maritime rights, and jurisdiction take time to be settled, even among good neighbours. The Philippines-Indonesia EEZ delimitation took 20 painstaking years, and the continental shelf demarcation has just begun.

The South China Sea row is a decades-old problem. There is no room for dialogue fatigue because the alternative is bleaker. Asean and China aim to conclude a Code of Conduct (COC) in three years, but none should put all their hopes on the COC resolving the South China Sea debacle.

02:03

Beijing and Manila trade blame over ‘provocative’ moves with ship collisions near disputed shoal

Harassing Philippine resupply missions in the Second Thomas Shoal does not make good optics for China. Neither do efforts to deny Filipino fishers entry into the Scarborough Shoal’s lagoon, where there are more fish. Generations of Filipino fishermen from the coastal provinces of western Luzon access the lagoon to peacefully conduct their livelihood.

Furthermore, how can Beijing preclude Manila from upgrading its structures in the Spratlys when it had built a massive Great Wall of Sand while an arbitration case was under way?

Most of the Philippines’ oil and gas reserves are located offshore west of Palawan, the land mass nearest the Spratlys. The near exhaustion of Malampaya, the country’s largest and ageing natural gas field, is among Manila’s energy security problems, which are compounded by Chinese interference in hydrocarbon exploration.

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One of the agreements reached during Marcos Jnr’s Beijing visit was the establishment of a communication mechanism on maritime issues between the foreign ministries of both countries. This should be fully utilised. Philippine maritime authorities have been rather outspoken about the South China Sea dispute, and this may affect diplomatic efforts to ease tensions.

Manila in March hosted the seventh round of the vice-ministerial level bilateral consultative mechanism on the South China Sea. Both sides should explore convening the eighth iteration at the soonest.

Hotline communications between coastguards of both sides established under Marcos Jnr’s predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, should also be revived and improved on, in light of complaints that, in one incident, the Chinese side could not be reached when its Philippine counterpart called.

Philippine fishermen working near the Chinese-controlled Scarborough Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea in September. Photo: AFP

Despite their seemingly intractable differences, the Philippines and China can still discuss practical cooperation in the South China Sea. A coordinated annual fishing ban can be tabled to conserve the sea’s diminishing fishing stocks to help depoliticise marine environment conservation. A multiparty joint fish stock assessment last year can serve as a precedent for further marine science cooperation.

The High Seas Treaty (BBNJ) can foster cooperation in the sustainable use of living marine resources, including in the high seas pocket in the middle of the semi-enclosed sea. Other areas of collaboration include ocean waves and offshore wind energy, mariculture and deep sea mining.

Maritime disputes do not define bilateral relations. Both sides should and could calm turbulent waters, steer bilateral ties back to steady ground and contribute to regional stability.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation.