Analysis | Philippine election: is Marcos’ win a sign of nostalgia for his father’s strongman rule?

His emphatic victory spotlights the dynastic rule by scions of Asian strongmen such as South Korea’s Park Chung-hee, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Indonesia’s Sukarno
People seem to be attaching more premium to stability and decisiveness amid toxic domestic politics, demands for post-pandemic recovery, and global geopolitics in flux

The Philippines

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Published: 5:28pm, 10 May 2022

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It’s a question worth asking: is Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr’s emphatic victory in Monday’s presidential election a sign that the Philippines is now ready to come to terms with its past?

The 64-year-old’s landslide win has rekindled memories of his father Ferdinand Marcos Snr’s rule from 1965 to 1986. Part of that tenure involved a 14-year martial law period that began in 1972 – a polarising chapter in the country’s history.

Depending on one’s perspective and political allegiance, the late patriarch’s legacy can be said to be both a blessing and a curse. Marcos Snr justified the imposition of martial law as a response to the threats of a growing communist insurgency and secessionism in the Muslim-majority Mindanao and Sulu regions in southern Philippines.

Philippines’ Marcos sweeps to landslide win, in reversal of family’s fortunes

Under his rule, Manila first staked its claim on the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea, and the Philippines carried out several major infrastructure projects, including its first rapid urban transit in Metro Manila which opened in 1985; specialty hospitals in the capital region that were among the first to be built in Asia; and a state-owned steel firm in Mindanao that at one point was the region’s largest producer.

Nonetheless, as is the case with eras of authoritarian rule, Marcos Snr’s martial law was also associated with widespread human rights violation, corruption, huge foreign debt, and an extreme dearth of democratic norms.

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Philippine election: Bongbong Marcos’ supporters celebrate landslide presidential victory

Asian scions

The scale of Marcos Jnr’s victory – a lead of 16 million votes over his closest rival Leni Robredo – suggests many Filipinos may have been mulling this convoluted chapter of their national history. Such introspection has been seen elsewhere in the region, in places that have also put in power the scions of ex-strongmen.

In Asia’s recent history, strongman leaders have had a mixed record. In some places, their iron-fisted rule instilled much-needed cohesion and order in the postcolonial era, which in turn heralded progress – or laid the foundation stones for it.

While the rule of strongmen often is accompanied by the prospect of unchecked power being abused, history suggests many in Asia seem to have profound reviews of these authoritarian pages in their nations’ chronicles, and the personalities associated with them.

Cultural Revolution was a catastrophe and Mao was responsible: CCP statement

Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People’s Republic of China, today is credited for defeating warlords, unifying the country and turning a revolutionary party into the country’s undisputed governing authority – a status quo that has now prevailed for seven uninterrupted decades.

However, he was also criticised for the failure of the Great Leap Forward and the excesses of the Cultural Revolution, both of which led to millions in death, economic dislocation, and chaos. In the final analysis, he was still given a favourable verdict of being “70 per cent correct and 30 per cent wrong”.

Park Chung-hee, a former general, ruled South Korea with a heavy hand for 17 years. File photo: AP

A similar grade was given to another Asian strongman, South Korea’s former President Park Chung-hee. In a 2015 poll, 74.3 per cent of respondents gave him a positive assessment in the political realm and an overwhelming 93.3 per cent in delivering economic development. The survey said he was also regarded as the country’s “best president” since the post-war liberation from Japan.

The former general, who came to power through a military coup, ruled South Korea with a heavy hand for 17 years. He presided over its rapid industrialisation, transforming the poor war-torn country into one of Asia’s tiger economies, alongside Taiwan and Singapore, which were likewise propelled to growth by fellow strongmen leaders, Chiang Kai-shek and Lee Kuan Yew.

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In Indonesia, the Philippines’ southern neighbour, a 2020 survey revealed that close to 50 per cent of respondents named two former strongmen among the best presidents in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.

Suharto, who ruled for 31 years – the longest stint in Indonesia’s history thus far – got the most votes at 23.8 per cent. His predecessor Sukarno, Indonesia’s founding father who reigned for 22 years, got 23.3 per cent, just a tad short of the country’s second favoured leader, popular incumbent Joko Widodo, who received 23.4 per cent.

Indonesia’s military strongman Suharto led a calculated coup against Sukarno. File photo: AFP

Facing mutinous regional military leaders, Sukarno declared martial law in 1957. He sought to balance nationalism, religion, and communism as the anchors of his Guided Democracy, brought West Papua into Indonesia’s fold, and opposed the inclusion of northern Borneo in the creation of a British-backed Malaysian federation.

He was also a recognised leader of the Non-Aligned Movement, hosting the 1955 Bandung Conference of Asian and African countries that eschewed getting pulled into the US-USSR Cold War.

Suharto, an army officer who led a calculated coup against Sukarno, was known for purging the communists out of power, ending confrontation with Malaysia, and helping establish the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), one of the world’s most enduring regional organisations.

Joko Widodo and former President Megawati Soekarnoputri pictured in July 22, 2014. File Photo: AFP

Dynastic succession

Like his counterparts in South Korea and Indonesia, Marcos Jnr will complete a dynastic succession that took over three decades in the making.

Park Chung-hee’s daughter, Park Geun-hye, and Sukarno’s daughter, Megawati, both waited 34 years before following in the footsteps of their fathers. Both are their respective countries’ first and thus far only women heads of state.

In the case of Marcos Jnr, his ascent to power was a journey that took 36 years to happen. It was the same waiting time for former Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who likewise assumed the top post of the land, echoing the service of her departed father, Diosdado.

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Marcos Jnr’s run rides on the growing nostalgia and desire for strongmen.

This was evidenced in the 2016 election of the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte, the 2019 re-election of Indonesia’s Jokowi, and a similar 2019 second serving for India’s Narendra Modi.

Duterte will bow out of office as one of his country’s most popular presidents. Modi was voted as India’s best prime minister thus far in a 2020 survey.

People seem to be attaching more premium to stability and decisiveness amid toxic domestic politics, demands for post-pandemic recovery, and global geopolitics in flux.

Imelda Marcos, wife of late Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, poses with the pictures she took with China’s late Chairman Mao Zedong. File photo: Handout

The return of a Marcos Jnr to the pinnacle of power also underpins strong social undercurrents – of people wanting to reflect on their tortuous past.

As the nation celebrates the 50th anniversary of the declaration of martial law, will the hatchet be finally buried? Does the son’s triumph augur an emerging consensus that accounts for both the achievements and failings of the father?

If Marcos Jnr’s mandate underpins a country’s willingness to move forward, will he rise to the occasion and be the unity leader he bills himself to be?