Optimism at odds with mood of haunted media
SECRETARY FOR Education and Manpower Fanny Law Fan Chiu-fun claimed last week the worst wave of lay-offs was over. Her reading of the economic barometer, however, does not quite tally with the gloomy mood and job prospects of those who had to report her comments.
Mrs Law assured legislators that companies had reported fewer job cuts to come because of improved external trade and increased orders.
The media industry, which relies primarily on advertising, is seen as a harbinger of what is in store for other sectors. There is hardly a silver lining in sight. As the policy secretary appeared in the chamber, employees of Next Media were exchanging e-mails about rumours of another imminent restructuring.
The group sacked 180 workers about 10 weeks ago. In January, it announced a loss of $70 million during the preceding six months. Those spared in the last round are now worried about their jobs again.
ACNielsen Media International estimated total advertising spending last year at $29.4 billion, registering a moderate 6.9 per cent growth over the previous year. The increase, however, was attributed largely to the expansion of outdoor adverts, including those on television screens installed in buses and mini-buses.
Last year, radio stations suffered a drop of 17.4 per cent, or $173 million, in ad revenue, which explains Commercial Radio's move to cut pay six to 12 per cent.
Other surveys suggest that circulations for print media have declined by four to five per cent since the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.
The South China Morning Post, which got rid of 18 editorial staff in October, posted a 41.2 per cent drop in its classified ads for the 12 months to December.
Some other papers are known to have been selling advertising space at up to an 80 per cent discount. A full-page colour ad may cost as little as $10,000 to $30,000.
Analysts have noted that the ACNielsen figures might in fact have been inflated because of the rampant discounts on offer.
The situation is set to get worse soon when it is no longer mandatory for listed companies to place some of their announcements in the print media. Instead, they can simply post their notices on related Web sites.
Meanwhile, there will be even more media organisations vying for a slice of the pie.
The Metro newspaper, with an initial print run of 300,000, will be distributed free in the MTR. The paper could be launched before the end of this month. Unlike the regular dailies, the publication has only a small editorial team of about 15. It will not carry as much news and features as its competitors.
Yet, the sheer size of its planned circulation will immediately ensure it will be in the same league as the mass-market Apple Daily. The latter is now eclipsed only by the Oriental Daily News in terms of readership.
This will be the first time a free newspaper is distributed in MTR stations. Whether the newcomer can make a significant impact on the reading habits of weekday commuters has yet to be seen. Those in charge of the existing papers do not appear to feel threatened.
The Metro may not be as comprehensive as its paid-for competitions, but casual readers might be tempted to opt for a free alternative. After all, an average MTR journey lasts only for about 20 minutes or so.
The media industry has been haunted by so many uncertainties that bosses and employees alike are keeping their fingers crossed. What is sure is that Mrs Law's assessment that the worst is already over is unlikely to convince anyone.
Andy Ho is a political commentator
