Mrs Arroyo has already received validation of her initially shaky presidency from the US. With memories still fresh of her country's divisive struggle to rid itself of US military bases a decade ago, a rejection now enshrined in the constitution, she has welcomed US troops back on to Philippine soil.

The first excuse was the decades-old Muslim insurgency in southern Mindanao, where US troops have been 'training' Philippine counterparts in their still-failing efforts to crush the Abu Sayyaf kidnapping gang.

The next excuse seems to be the similarly intractable communist insurgency which has revived in the past two years and could now gain more support thanks to the US demonisation of it.

'It's a marriage of convenience for the Philippines, and for Singapore too,' said Kavi Chongkittavorn, a political expert and senior editor of Thailand's the Nation newspaper.

'These are two countries who know how to make themselves important to the US,' he said. 'Malaysia is unique, having switched sides completely in under a year in a very calculated way. But Thailand has put itself off the radar screen; we are out of the loop.'

He argues that Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is short-sighted, ignoring the opportunities inherent in the US drive in the region, to the extent of endangering Thailand's national security.

'Thailand has been a close US ally for decades, but hasn't yet understood the changes taking place in the US, and hasn't woken up to the possibilities,' he said.

Some analysts see the current US focus on terrorism as a way for smart diplomats to pursue national and regional self-interest.

But non-government groups in Thailand and elsewhere are concerned that even the Thai government could grasp the nettle of anti-terrorism by cracking down on groups which may be local nuisances but have nothing to do with al-Qaeda.

Indonesian democrats have worried for months now that where the US was an ally in promoting civil society and human rights only a year ago, it now seems happy to jettison such credibility in its with-us-or-against-us campaign against terrorism.

A mass international gathering of social action groups in Bangkok last weekend sounded more warnings about the threat to all advocates of open societies posed by the loose US definition of terror. The participants said regional peace and security was being undermined by both economic liberalisation and military expansionism, and there was a unanimous call for the US and its proxies to withdraw from Afghanistan, and for US troops to leave the Philippines, Japan, Korea and Uzbekistan.

The new battle lines are inspiring new alliances, in which China is playing a larger role. 'The Chinese are not stupid. They see the encirclement posed by the US presence around many of its borders, and they are playing their own game,' Mr Kavi said. 'They are already moving to expand co-operation with and within Southeast Asia.'

He referred to the approach by China at the recent meeting of Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers in Brunei, where Beijing offered to listen to regional concerns and engage more in cross-border issues as part of a new security blueprint.

'This is much more interesting, and I believe that in the end, many in the region will prefer the Chinese way of instant rewards. With the US, there's too much baggage,' Mr Kavi said.