Showcase cities risk creating a resentful underclass
At the age of 46 and facing imminent eviction, Xia Rei Mi finds himself on the losing side of Shanghai's urban relocation policy. Once set amid a thriving community in the central Jing'an district, his house is now surrounded by piles of rubble, broken pipes and twisted metal.
'They have torn down the houses of all my neighbours and friends,' he said. 'We are the last ones living here and the government wants us out soon.'
Mr Xia is one of many urban residents across China whose traditional-style housing is set to be demolished to make way for new development. Shanghai has been relocating people at a rate of 80,000 a year since 2000. On top of that, 400,000 will be moved to Shanghai's suburbs by 2007 to clear ground for exhibition halls and shopping areas to be built in time for the 2010 World Fair.
In Beijing, similar relocations are being implemented for new development in preparation for the 2008 Olympic Games.
But some residents are putting up a fight. According to the China Economic Times, the central government received 13,513 complaints about forced relocation last year, compared with 8,516 complaints in 2001. Relocated residents recently protested in front of Shanghai's municipal building after their lawyer was jailed on charges of releasing state secrets.
In Beijing, plans for relocation of residents from their traditional homes have led to two reported self-immolations in acts of protest.
When asked if he would try to resist the move, Mr Xia said: 'No, it's useless, even if you have a hukou [Shanghai residency permit], that doesn't mean you are safe from harassment ... I know I will have to leave.'
But while Mr Xia finds little comfort in the hukou system, some sing its praises as one of the major forces preventing a proliferation of shack housing.
Referring to such a shack settlement in South Africa, Gu Chaolin of Nanjing University said: 'The hukou keeps us from having anything like this.'
A hukou guarantees urban residents rights to housing, health care and education in the cities in which they are registered, thus making migration to cities without a hukou a risky endeavour.
However, even without the guarantee of work or social services, migrants continue to leave the countryside where there is a nationwide surplus of 300 million workers. Professor Gu estimates there are 36 million to 40 million such migrants already living in cities.
Mona Serageldin, associate director of Harvard University's Centre for Urban Development, said the growing number of dispossessed and those without enforceable rights, like floating migrants, meant China's economy was resting on an unstable foundation of inequitable development.
This imbalance, she asserts, will inevitably lead to social unrest: 'China must face up to the serious danger of creating an urban underclass. Cities the world over have seen the devastating effects of creating such an underclass, whether in the favela slums of Brazil or the gang-infested streets of a Los Angeles ghetto.
'China must avoid this path, but indications suggest that it cannot.'
It is not only foreign experts who show concern over the growing gap between the rich and poor on the mainland. Gu Wenxuan, secretary-general of the Chinese Society for Urban Studies, said the phenomenon could be blamed for many of the country's urban problems.
'Rich people build villas covering more land than is necessary, sometimes upwards of 6,000 square metres for a three- or even two-person household,' he said. 'This divide is a serious problem and one we will have to overcome.'
Dr Serageldin said: 'Local government must learn how to work with non-governmental organisations and move away from a climate of confrontation and towards one of collaboration.'
In the meantime, migrants will continue to float into the cities and people like Mr Xia in Shanghai will continue to watch helplessly as their neighbourhoods make room for China's urban development.
