Reform or die. It's the only choice
The Democratic Party, led by Martin Lee Chu-ming until he was succeeded by Yeung Sum, is in danger of losing its leadership position within the democratic camp.
Whereas in the last legislature, the party held 11 seats, or exactly half the number of the overall democratic camp, in the coming legislature, it will hold only nine of 25 seats; or a little over one-third. That is to say, almost two-thirds of members of the democratic camp will not be members of the Democratic Party.
The diminished state of the Democratic Party is also reflected in its drop from the biggest party in Legco to third position, behind the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong and the Liberal Party. However, in terms of votes received in the geographical constituencies, the Democratic Party performed just about as well as the DAB.
It is a little difficult to calculate the Democrats' votes, since in New Territories East, they teamed up with Emily Lau Wai-hing, of The Frontier, and other non-party members. Moreover, on Hong Kong Island, they clearly took votes that had originally been intended for the list headed by Audrey Eu Yuet-mee. Nonetheless, giving the party half the votes garnered by the alliance in New Territories East, and counting all the votes for the Yeung Sum list as votes for the party, we come up with 456,194 votes for the Democratic Party versus 454,827 votes for the DAB - virtually a dead heat.
However, the DAB got nine directly elected seats to the Democrats' seven. This reflected the DAB's ability to make use of tactical voting. On Hong Kong Island, for example, the DAB got two candidates elected with about 75,000 votes. The Democrats received more than 130,000 votes, and also won two seats, meaning that about 55,000 votes went to waste.
And while the DAB was able to get two candidates elected in three of the five geographical constituencies - a feat anticipated by few political analysts - the Democrats were able to do this only on Hong Kong Island and in New Territories West.
In Kowloon West, the only geographical constituency where a DAB and a Democratic Party candidate went head to head, both Tsang Yok-sing and James To Kun-sun won seats, with the former DAB chairman receiving 61,770 votes to 60,539 for Mr To. The negative publicity involving Mr To, who was accused of inflating rental claims for a party property he used as a Legco office, no doubt cost him votes.
The results also show that the DAB was successful not only in retaining its so-called 'iron votes' but was also able to attract new voters. According to University of Hong Kong pollster Robert Chung Ting-yiu, exit polls showed that new voters had distributed their support more or less evenly between pro-Beijing and pro-democracy camps.
Part of the reason for the DAB's better-than-expected performance is that opinion polls consistently underestimated its support. For example, on Hong Kong Island, where Civic Exchange's rolling survey showed the DAB with only 5 per cent support in mid-August and 9.9 per cent on the election eve, it ended up with 21 per cent of the vote. DAB vice-chairman Ip Kwok-him said the party's own surveys had always shown its support in double digits.
There has been an unfortunate tendency on the part of the Democrats to overestimate their own ability, while underestimating their opponent. That is a formula for defeat. Law Chi-kwong, executive committee member of the Democratic Party, has said that the party needs 'earth-shattering reform' if it is to survive. Spoken by its chief strategist, these words should be heeded if the party hopes to continue to lead the democratic camp.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator
