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Controls fail to halt investment surge

Fixed-asset investment growth rises to 29pc in September

The acceleration of fixed-asset investment in mainland cities has cast doubt on the effectiveness of central government macroeconomic controls.

Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday revealed that urban investment grew 29.4 per cent year on year last month.

That is faster than the 27.2 per cent year-on-year growth registered in July and the 28.5 per cent in August.

Urban investment has grown at a much faster pace than rural investment. During the past nine months, urban investment increased by 27.7 per cent to 4.87 trillion yuan, while rural investment rose by 17.6 per cent to 832 billion yuan.

Jiming Ha, economist with China Capital International Corporation, said the latest data suggested investment was again overheating.

'The low interest rate, ample monetary supply and the failure of the government's macro-control policy have all contributed to a rebound of overheating in capital investment,' Mr Ha said.

Disputing recent charges from overseas that Beijing was inflating economic figures, Mr Ha said he believed the government would rather have figures showing a cooling down of investment than a worrying rise.

'We can easily see the strong growth in investment in infrastructure and manufacturing everywhere,' Mr Ha said, adding that strong growth figures, particularly relating to investment, were now regarded adversely by government agencies.

Overall investment growth in urban areas has slowed from a peak of 53.2 per cent in the first two months of last year.

This prompted the government to launch an austerity programme with curbs on investment in some sectors and restrictions on banking loans.

The growth rate has since stabilised at about 27 per cent, still much higher than the government's projected 16 per cent rate for the whole year, as spending increases to ease transport bottlenecks and electricity shortages and complete projects already approved by governments.

Overall fixed-asset investment grew 26.1 per cent in the first three quarters of the year to 5.7 trillion yuan. Growth in property investment slowed to 22.2 per cent to 1 trillion yuan in the first nine months.

Urban spending on construction, factory equipment and other fixed assets may grow more slowly in future, according to the mainland's top economic planner.

Growth in gross domestic product should average 7.5 per cent between next year and 2010, compared with growth of 8.8 per cent for the past five years, said Ma Kai , minister of the National Development and Reform Commission.

The mainland's economy grew 9.5 per cent in 2003 and last year, according to state statistics.

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