For the second, they may wish to ensure that the US consumer spending baton passes seamlessly next year to shoppers in China so that Asia's growth race can continue without a stumble.

Short of a massive shock from an outbreak of avian flu, the region's economies are set to maintain solid economic growth by most accounts and lenders such as HSBC and Hang Seng Bank will look to the new year with the added imprimatur of possible ratings' upgrades from Moody's Investor Services.

Hang Seng's bank financial strength rating was put on review for a possible upgrade along with all deposit and debt ratings with the exception of its foreign currency deposit rating which is constrained by the sovereign ceiling.

Moody's said this was because of the bank's 'significant and resilient franchise in Hong Kong - despite market volatilities - excellent profitability and prudent management'.

The bank's plans to increase its presence in China would also help it diversify away from the crowded Hong Kong market into an underserved community with 'immense potential'.

It added that parent HSBC had delivered an excellent financial performance that was 'directly attributable to a strong management team capable of delivering credible results in volatile markets'.

With promising long-term prospects in countries such as China and India, HSBC would gradually achieve more geographical diversification with a growing presence outside its Hong Kong home base, it added.

Economic settings remain equally rosy.

In its assessment of the Hong Kong economy, Lehman Brothers noted that an 8.2 per cent year on year growth rate in the third quarter was underpinned by resilient exports and buoyant domestic demand that augured well for next year, particularly as the economy was likely to continue benefiting from mainland growth.

Economic analysts at UBS maintained a 'positive outlook for consumption, tourism, and the retail sector and foresaw just two more rate rises of 25 basis points apiece, leaving rates stable by the middle of the year'.

In its East Asia and Pacific Update, the World Bank observed that growth in the emerging East Asia region would end the year at a little more than 6 per cent, down only modestly from an exceptionally strong 7.2 per cent pace recorded last year.

With growth in China continuing to run at robust rates of more than 9 per cent, any further slowing this year was likely to be limited, the World Bank noted.

The pace of activity around the region was already reviving in the third quarter of the year.

However, key risks for the year ahead are oil prices and the 'spectre of a human influenza pandemic'.

In the view of Milan Brahmbhatt, a senior economist with the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region, a bird flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy US$800 billion a year.

While considerable uncertainties remained about the timing, virulence and general scope of a future pandemic, based on the experience of Sars in East Asia, it could cause a 2 per cent loss in the global gross domestic product - representing about US$800 billion over a whole year, he said.

In a policy brief published last month, the economic research department of the Asian Development Bank examined the possible economic consequences for Asia of a mutation of avian flu leading to human-to-human transmission.

The findings were that even a relatively mild outbreak would 'likely slow or halt economic growth in Asia and lead to a significant reduction in trade, particularly of services'.

To put such a scenario in perspective, the bank said the economic impact of Sars was about US$18 billion in East Asia, or 0.6 per cent of GDP.

The World Health Organisation estimates between two and seven million people could die in a bird flu outbreak.

Some estimate deaths to exceed 100 million - more in line with the devastating results of the Spanish flu of 1918-19 that killed 50 million to 100 million people.

The ADB study assumed an infection rate of about one in five people and of those infected, it assumed one in every 200 would die and the flu would last about one year. About three million Asians would die in such a scenario.

In Scenario Two, however, which assumed that the psychological impact of the outbreak lasted longer and seriously affect demand for four quarters (rather than just two quarters in Scenario One), it foresaw a world recession with an estimated loss of about US$282.7 billion, or 6.5 percentage points of GDP, to economies in the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan (see chart).

Here's hoping for a happy new year free of the flu.