When purge comes to shove
Thailand's police chief, under fire for months, has finally received his marching orders. Others may follow as time starts to run short for the military junta's efforts to break Thaksin Shinawatra's influence over the police before the promised election this year.
Thaksin, the prime minister booted out by the army last September, still looms large over voters, bureaucrats and politicians. That makes this election a risky proposition for the junta, because a government could come to power that will do his bidding.
To ruin his prospects, the junta is pursuing dozens of allegations of corruption and abuse of power against Thaksin. However, six months after snatching power, the military has yet to bring explosive allegations to court, let alone see judges hand down stiff sentences that would deter Thaksin from returning from his gilded exile. Finding judges, police or other civil servants who are willing to make an enemy of Thaksin could be tough. Not since General Phao Sriyanon in the 1950s - the last policeman to hold power - had the police enjoyed as much clout as they did under Thaksin, a former police colonel.
In 2002, Thaksin told the army to clear out of three troubled provinces along the Malaysian border, and put the brown uniforms in charge of quelling outbreaks of smuggling, crime and ethnic tensions. Violence soon flared. Rivalry and competition between units of the army, police and other agencies have not helped.
Under the junta, however, the police have made no progress in a lese majeste case against Thaksin. They have not arrested arsonists for torching schools in rural areas where Thaksin remains popular. The bell finally tolled for Kowit Wattana, sacked as police chief on February 5, after detectives failed to find out who planted the nine bombs that killed three in Bangkok on December 31.
Thaksin had appointed his friend, Mr Kowit, and other senior police officers. The junta gave them the benefit of the doubt, at first, to avoid further straining relations between the army and police. Yet the odds of the police enthusiastically pursuing cases against Thaksin were clearly slim from the start. Efforts to clean up the police will, however, prove fruitless without other measures that are desperately needed to deliver justice - such as introducing juries and giving public prosecutors and courts powers of inquiry.
But the top priority is clearly extending the army's control. All security agencies, including the police, have been subordinated to the military's Internal Security Operations Command, originally formed to fight a communist insurgency during the cold war.
Senior officers, especially those close to Thaksin, are now on notice to get in step quickly or feel the axe. Even if it falls, however, their influence in the police and ties with Thaksin will persist, because of the classmate patronage networks that riddle the police force.
Tensions between police and anti-Thaksin factions of the military seem set to heighten before they ease, generating further political woes. The junta's prospects for success in moving against the police and Thaksin do not look promising - especially after the election. That is, unless the generals intend to keep a grip on power behind the scenes or through a proxy political party.
David Fullbrook is a freelance writer and political analyst
