Stumbles and missteps in Thailand
Some heavy waves have rocked Thailand's military-appointed government over the past few weeks, washing away yet more precious credibility. This is not what interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont needs as he prepares to sell a questionable constitution to the public and oversee an election. Finding a new finance minister has been a chore for Mr Surayud, who finally named academic Chalongphob Sussangkarn to the post last week. More suitable candidates shunned the fumbling caretaker government with perhaps only six months left in office.
An empty finance chair capped a rocky February. Pridiyathorn Devakula walked away from the job last month over what he said were bitter disputes within the government. Somkid Jatusripitak was appointed an economic adviser last month, but resigned within a week. He was by turns finance and commerce minister under deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Many, however, were glad to see the departure of Mr Pridiyathorn, the Bank of Thailand governor during the Thaksin years. He backed currency controls to punish speculators, but they backfired - causing the stock market to crash and foreign investors' sentiment to sink further still.
The pressure of all these setbacks took its toll on the government. That became clear when Mr Surayud criticised General Sondhi Boonyaratkalin - his colleague, the coup leader and army chief - because killings have been rising in three troubled Malay-Muslim majority provinces along the Malaysian border.
It's not clear whether the shadowy militant groups in that region are growing in power or are lashing out because of Mr Surayud's recent bid for Malaysia's help to open a channel to the militants. He apologised to Malay-Muslims for abuses by police and troops under Mr Thaksin, and launched a new strategy based on reconciliation. But many Buddhists fear Bangkok may become too pro-Muslim.
Last month's dramas heightened the perception that the government is inept, bungling and falling victim to rivalries and power plays. However, the government's greatest shortcoming is the absence of long-promised corruption charges against Thaksin. Little wonder that public approval for Mr Surayud and the coup-makers is falling while Thaksin's has crept up.
None of this bodes well for the challenges ahead: the government has only a few months to rally a sceptical public to approve a new constitution in a promised referendum, probably in July.
Many critics and democracy campaigners believe the constitution will prune back democracy and entrench military control. A taste of the future came with the recent decision to deploy generals and colonels as deputy governors for security in every province. Activists are preparing a vigorous 'no' campaign, a line they will doubtless push loudly at events in Bangkok and elsewhere to mark June's 75th anniversary of the overthrow of absolute monarchy. Large anti-constitution and anti-military protests are a growing possibility.
On top of this, the government will have to manage an election so that Thaksin's friends do not come out on top - without sacrificing credibility at home and abroad.
These are tall challenges for a government that has already stumbled over smaller ones. Its record of errors and missteps only raises the chances of reacting with deadly force to intense pressure and large protests around the constitutional referendum or the election.
David Fullbrook is a political analyst
