Disdainful Thais ponder 'lost year'
A year ago the world watched dumbfounded as Thais gave flowers, food and even hugs to troops who, the night before, had rolled into Bangkok. With a nod and a wink from palace courtiers, on September 19 generals moved against Thaksin Shinawatra, the controversial prime minister who was then visiting America.
One year on, the junta faces apathy and disdain. Its dithering and missteps, especially over the economy, have left people feeling poorer and wistfully recalling the Thaksin years. Thaksin, meanwhile, remains popular, wealthy and free despite the junta's vow to prosecute him for corruption. To the chagrin of the generals and their allies, Thaksin's political influence endures.
Now a general election is set for December 23, and a strong contender is the People's Power Party, comprised mostly of politicians from Thaksin's dissolved Thai Rak Thai. Other formidable party machines taking shape are led by figures friendly to Thaksin. Together they could well outgun a party fronting for the military.
That would be uncomfortable for the army, so would likely amendments to the new constitution, which strengthened the army's hand. Further, pardons are being mooted for 111 politicians, including Thaksin. Such moves would roll back gains made by the army since it seized power, and there would be little left to show for the coup. Tangible benefits for society have been few; the respected Thai weekly Matichon summed up the army's rule as 'the lost year'. Another strike by the elite faction behind the coup would then be a distinct possibility.
So it looks as if, after the election, another cycle of instability and confrontation will begin between competing elites. The situation is made more intense because many players, including the revered king, advisers and prominent politicians, are in their 70s or 80s. Thaksin is a sprightly 58.
These cycles are symptoms of Thailand's failed transition from absolute monarchy to liberal democracy, which began with the revolution that ended absolute monarchy in 1932. Power has remained the province of elites, exchanged usually through force or occasionally at the ballot box. Patronage, rather than ideas, still defines political culture.
Little substance has been put into the outer forms of a modern state and society in Thailand. Consequently, corruption defies plenty of bluster about cleaning it up. Education is a mess. Anybody who can, heads oversees for their schooling.
The consequences are stark. In 1960 Thailand was, by some measures, more developed than South Korea. Both received hefty aid and investment from America. Today South Korea is a vibrant democracy and leading industrial power.
Keeping Thai society weak has allowed the old elites to hog political power. But it did not provide a defence against an ambitious challenger from within the new capitalist class that began to gather incredible wealth in the 1970s.
That contender was a provincial businessman and politician: Thaksin. This nemesis is one of the old elite's own making. They may yet knock him out of the game, but he will not be the last of his kind. Meanwhile, Thailand's transition marks time.
David Fullbrook is a freelance writer and political analyst
