Business as usual for Australia and China?
It's probably a fair bet that Beijing isn't taking a huge amount of interest in who wins Australia's general election on November 24. Why would it? Current Prime Minister John Howard has shown that China is definitely a nation Australia wants to do business with and stay on friendly terms on both the diplomatic and strategic fronts.
And the man who would be prime minister, leader of the Australian Labor Party Kevin Rudd, is a Putonghua-speaking Sinophile who is more attuned to China than any political leader in Australia's history.
It is true that there is little difference between Mr Howard and Mr Rudd on the overall need to stay friendly with China. However, there are genuine differences on how best to engage Beijing over the next three to five years on issues such as climate change, trade and the conflict between Japan and China.
When it comes to climate change, Mr Rudd is committed to Australia signing the Kyoto Protocol, something that Mr Howard has always resisted. Mr Rudd thinks that if Australia is to influence one of the world's biggest polluters it must sign the protocol. That's because, he says, China's argument - that it won't sign up to greenhouse-gas targets because countries like the United States and Australia haven't done so - will be weakened.
But that is not all. In March, Mr Rudd announced that he would head a team to visit China to talk about climate-change co-operation between the two countries. Curiously, the visit has not materialised, which is probably a good thing, given that it would have amounted to nothing more than a talkfest. But if Mr Rudd were to win the election, expect him to head for China fairly quickly to look at how Australia could assist the Chinese in moving forward on the issue.
On the matter of Sino-Japanese tensions, Mr Rudd is less hostile to the idea of greater security ties between China and Australia than Mr Howard. When Mr Howard signed a joint declaration on security with Japan this year, he ruled out a similar engagement with China because it is not a democracy.
Mr Rudd is a little more flexible. He opposes the idea of a binding security treaty with Japan because it would provoke unnecessary hostility in China. And he hasn't ruled out closer strategic ties with Beijing. China is a big player in the region, he says, so why exclude closer co-operation in areas such as terrorism and law enforcement?
And, what will happen to the proposed free-trade agreement between Australia and China? After nine rounds of negotiations, there is still no deal in sight and Mr Rudd is promising to drive a tougher bargain with the Chinese. If he is true to his rhetoric, he will walk away from the table if Beijing does not get serious about removing its protective barriers in key industries such as agriculture and manufacturing.
Overall though, whether Mr Howard is returned to office for a fifth term, or Mr Rudd leads his party to victory for the first time since 1993, Beijing needn't lose any sleep.
Greg Barns is a political commentator in Australia and a former Australian government adviser
