The ADB endorsement is partly echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which notes that Thailand is the exception to continued strong consumption growth among the Asean Five (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) since 'political developments continue to weigh on confidence'.

But assuming the cloud lifts after the election, Thailand, the laggard, may be in for an investment boost, it adds.

In its Regional Economic Outlook, published in October, the IMF says its baseline scenario for Asia features a modest reduction in growth in 2008, in response to policy tightening in the major emerging markets in the region and a slowdown in foreign demand.

But assuming that credit markets gradually normalise, the fallout from the global financial turmoil should be manageable for emerging Asia, it adds, and exceptions to a pattern of slower investment and exports for much of the region will be Indonesia and Thailand.

That vote of confidence in Thailand from the IMF comes 10 years on from the Asian financial crisis that was triggered when the Thai baht was hunted down by hedge funds anticipating the collapse of its pegged exchange rate with the US dollar because of the unsustainable debt repayments being made on the country's foreign currency loans. The currency was finally allowed to float on July 2, 1997 when the authorities ran out of reserves with which to defend the peg, and the resulting contagion unleashed a capital flood that eventually saw US$150billion (HK$1.17trillion) pour out of Asian assets and into safer havens in just three months.

The reversal of confidence by investors, who had collectively backed a dawning 'Asian age' by pumping US$100billion into the region in the preceding year, imploded exchange rates, asset prices and personal incomes right across the region, sweeping all of its economies into what is now generally referred to as the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.

But the latest IMF data shows that in one important respect Thailand today is quite different from the country that led Asia into the financial crisis.

At the latest measure, foreign currency loans amounted to just 4 per cent of total loans, the IMF points out, versus 25 per cent in 1997 (see chart 1 on page 26).

The IMF forecasts economic growth for Thailand in 2008 of 4.5 per cent (revised down from 4.8 per cent in its April Regional Economic Outlook,), versus 5.8 per cent for the Asean Five (see chart 2 on page 26).

Speaking at the 2007 annual meetings of the boards of governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, in Washington in the United States on October22, Thai minister of finance Chalongphob Sussangkarn said growth this year would run out at 4.5 per cent, and given government investment programmes and 'political clarity' secured by the December election, growth would exceed this rate in 2008.

'Elections are due on December 23 [and] with political clarity after the elections and the investment stimulus from the groundwork laid by this government, it is expected that Thailand's economic growth in 2008 should easily exceed that in 2007,' he said.

The government had given the go-ahead for three major mass transit projects, amounting to more than US$3billion, which would begin in 2008, he said, and other large-scale investment projects in the petrochemical sector were also in the pipeline. In addition, foreign direct investment had picked up and the public and private investment programmes would help cushion the impact of a potential slowdown in exports.

Thai exports were up 10.4 per cent in September, from 17.9 per cent the previous month. Exports were valued at US$13.3billion in September, compared with a record US$13.9billion in August, according to a statement released by the country's Commerce Minister Krirkkrai Jirapaet in Bangkok on October22.

The Thai military government, now due to give up power to a democratically elected government, has already approved a budget for 2008 with a deficit of 165billion baht, 1.8 per cent of GDP.

Total public investment is set to rise by 8 per cent against 2007, with additional allocations for the mass transit system, energy and the petrochemical industry.

'The aim of this expansionary fiscal policy,' notes the ADB, is to stimulate domestic demand, and the main risk to the economic outlook is a 'continuation of policy uncertainty into 2008 if the newly elected government cannot quickly implement a sound programme for the economy'.

Foreign investors, meanwhile, are beginning to line up to make a vote of confidence in the forthcoming election and the economic outlook.

Among the investment projects announced is a proposal from China's No 2 beer maker, Tsingtao Brewery, to spend an initial 40million yuan to establish its first overseas plant in Thailand, with a projected capacity of 80,000 kilolitres of beer a year, and Ford Motor Company, together with its Japanese affiliate Mazda Motor says it will spend US$500million to set up a plant in Thailand.