The one-son policy
China's controversial one-child policy was again the subject of much debate at the annual meeting of the country's parliament, the National People's Congress, and at the nation's top advisory body, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. In the end, those in favour of no change won the day, with Premier Wen Jiabao announcing that the policy was here to stay.
However, the policy, which has been in effect now for almost 30 years, is clearly unsustainable. While it has slowed population growth by 300 million to 400 million during that time, it has also resulted in a severe sex imbalance, which will lead to grave social problems very soon.
Because of the traditional preference for males - to till the land, continue the family line and take care of parents in their old age - the one-child policy has resulted in the abortion of female fetuses, once the sex of the unborn could be determined by ultrasound equipment. There has also been widespread female infanticide, as couples strive to ensure that the one child they are allowed to have is male.
As a result, China's sex ratio is severely distorted. While internationally, the ratio of births in industrialised countries stands at 103 to 107 boys per 100 girls, in mainland China last year it stood at 120.2 boys to 100 girls and, in some provinces, it was even greater than 130 boys to 100 girls, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
This means, according to some studies, that by 2020 - only 12 years away - 40 million Chinese men will not be able to find wives, leading to social instability, increased trafficking in women and other grave social problems. In other words, it will result in a lack of social harmony, exactly the opposite of what the government hopes to achieve. But there is a solution: change the one-child policy to a one-son policy. I know this will sound to many people like serious discrimination against females, but it is not. Rather, it will result in uncounted girl fetuses being born, baby girls being allowed to live and a more even gender balance.
Moreover, it will also relieve another pressing social problem: the ageing of the Chinese population. It is estimated that, if current trends continue, by 2030, one in five people in the country will be over 65 years of age, roughly double the current ratio.
That makes developing China's ageing problem as severe as that of industrialised Japan. I realise that this proposal will be denounced and, yes, it is politically incorrect in this age of supposed equality between men and women.
But one must live in the real world, and the reality is that, for various historical and cultural reasons, Chinese couples today - that is, both men and women - want to have boys.
This does not necessarily mean they do not want girls. But if they are only allowed to have one child, then they want it to be a boy, leading to countless tragedies for girls, both born and unborn.
Population trends around the world have shown that, as societies urbanise and industrialise, they produce smaller families. Hong Kong certainly exemplifies this trend, as the city's birth rate is so low that it is actually below the replacement level.
So, the mainland Chinese population will gradually stabilise, though perhaps at a level somewhat higher than that currently anticipated. But this is a price that will have to be paid, and the benefits far outweigh the costs.
Among the many benefits of a one-son policy would be more young workers available to care for the older generation and a gender ratio that produces social harmony.
Then, as China becomes increasingly affluent, the birth rate will drop naturally, as people's attitudes change. Such changes can come only with time: they cannot be compelled.
Meanwhile, the government should promote programmes that raise the status of women and promote gender equality. A one-son policy may look and sound retrograde, but it is an acknowledgement of reality that can save millions of baby girls.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator
