Advertisement
Advertisement

Indonesia likely to be the winner as its people cast their votes

Indonesia's elections this week face a host of logistical problems, and its young democracy has far to go. But, as Fabio Scarpello reports, the very fact that the elections are taking place remains a great achievement. When a country the size of Indonesia goes to vote, it is seldom a trouble-free exercise.

A host of organisational shortcomings will come into focus on Thursday, as voters cast their ballots in national, regional and local elections. And the campaign has had more of the trappings of a carnival than a serious political event.

But the very fact that the polls are taking place gives many observers reason for optimism.

'The important thing is that democracy is cementing. This election is not perfect, but it is an important step,' political commentator Wimar Witoelar said.

Indonesia's transition to democracy started in 1998, after the fall of the Suharto regime. It has been hailed worldwide as a remarkable success.

Under Suharto only three parties were allowed and candidates were hand-picked, with the results of the vote predetermined.

Now, the pendulum has swung in the other direction - there are 38 parties running in the national elections, and a proliferation of would-be politicians with dubious grass-roots credentials.

Posters of obscure candidates disfigure walls, fences and seemingly every lamp post in the country. Most candidates picture themselves alongside photographs of their party's leader - but some of the more creative have opted for photos of Barack Obama, David Beckham or even the children's character Kung-Fu Panda.

Party rallies are defined by the handing out of T-shirts, traffic- clogging motorcades and concerts. Every party has committed itself to fighting corruption and poverty.

Mr Witoelar acknowledged that the Indonesian democratic process had evolved into something of a spectacle, but added that at least 'people have a choice - and politicians will learn'.

In the meantime, changes to the election law have ensured that this vote will be different.

Parties must now win at least 2.5 per cent of the national vote to gain seats in the national parliament. Fewer than 10 are expected to manage that, which it is hoped will translate into a more efficient legislature.

Another change will see seats allocated to individual candidates, rather than those on party lists.

While some argue this may force candidates to spend more on their campaigns rather than riding on the coattails of their party, Syamsuddin Harris, political analyst with the Indonesian Institute of Science, said: 'It is a democratic advancement, as legislative candidates are now truly determined by their constituents.'

Like most experts, Dr Syamsuddin said what worried him more was the body charged with organising the polls, the General Elections Committee (KPU).

The KPU has struggled with the logistics of the vote, and there are concerns that the polling in distant regencies may delay the results. Even worse, the reliability of the voter list has already been questioned by some parties, fearing that irregularities in a recent provincial election could recur at a national level.

Even before a ballot has been cast, the Constitutional Court has said it expects more than 1,000 legal challenges from candidates and parties. In the 2004 election, 479 complaints were registered.

Nonetheless, Indra Samego, a political and security analyst, said these were unlikely to develop into security problems.

'There will be disappointments but not problems,' he said.

An exception might be Aceh. Violence has marred the run-up to the vote, thanks to a reservoir of distrust built up during the 30-year separatist war that only recently ended.

The parliamentary elections this time are doubly important - they serve as a precursor to the July presidential race. Presidential candidates must be backed by a party, or parties, that win 20 per cent of the 560 parliamentary seats or 25 per cent of the popular vote in the legislative polls.

Some polls say President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party may be the only one with a real shot at passing the threshold. Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and the Golkar party of Vice-President Jusuf Kalla are expected to secure roughly 15 per cent of the votes. The three party leaders are considered the most likely contenders for the presidency.

A poll apart

Indonesia, with its 6,000 inhabited islands, represents a unique challenge for election organisers

Seats in lower house of parliament: 560

Number of polling stations: 582,217

Number of eligible voters: 171,265,442

Post