Enigmatic as ever
From the founding of the People's Republic in 1949, Hong Kong has been known for its 'China-watchers', whether they be journalists, intelligence officers or, in recent years, investment bank analysts. While China was both embargoed and closed to the outside world for three decades, China-watchers of old spent much of their time rummaging through mainland newspapers looking to see who stood beside whom in which meeting or commemoration to put together the intricacies of Chinese politics, which remained enigmatic to the outside world.
Today, China is open to the world, has been the largest recipient next to the United States of foreign investment, holds the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves, and its once closed state-owned enterprises are now big corporations listed on premier stock exchanges with their shares traded globally. So, China-watching should be easier, right?
Maybe not, as, despite China's apparent openness, its inner political workings are as enigmatic as during the Cultural Revolution. Those outside its political inner circle, even the vast majority of Chinese in the country, have little real knowledge of the internal political decision-making process that affects their daily lives, and the personalities behind it. Most people, like old China watchers, are left with reports of commemorations or meetings in the official media to observe who is standing beside whom.
It seems ironic, despite all the openness achieved, that China's political system is as closed to the outside as ever. At least previous generations of leaders had distinct personalities that both Chinese and foreigners could attribute certain characteristics to, that made them seem very human. Today, one is left guessing as to what the differences may be between the leaders because of a complete void in individual personality projected by the official media.
So, the 60th anniversary celebrations offered a rare opportunity to pick up some political messages. For most Chinese, the televised Tiananmen celebrations represented a moment of incredible pride. For military analysts from Washington to New Delhi, the show of nuclear intercontinental missiles and jet fighters projected China's new military reach in global terms that some countries might find irksome.
Three other messages screamed out from the parade. First and most benign is that the Chinese people are very proud of having built the nation up from a poverty-stricken state, devastated by civil war.
Second is that absolute government control works. The precision of the entire celebrations was about micro-control of every movement. China is uninterested in other models. The success in economic, financial, sporting and military terms makes it clear to the population that they need not debate the issue.
The third is that China has the weapons and people (lots of them) to fight. So 'foreign interferers' should think twice.
The evening ended with fireworks and President Hu Jintao holding hands with a Tibetan and Uygur girl on each side, dancing with many representatives of smiling ethnic minorities in Tiananmen Square. This message could not be clearer.
There was another clear image. Throughout much of the proceedings, former president Jiang Zemin (in a suit and tie) stood beside Hu (in a classic Mao suit). Ten years ago, when Jiang presided over the 50th anniversary celebrations, it was to say that China will open up by taking on the challenges of massive economic and social reforms. As Hu presided over the 60th celebrations, the message was that China is now a global superpower, unchallenged and unsurpassed. At least, that is what 1.3 billion people understood. Is that what China watchers in Washington and New Delhi understood?
Ten years ago, China-watchers observed the celebrations and asked whether China would become the factory of the world. This year, they can take note that China is now the banker of the world.
