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Get to the heart of the matter with news on our city, Hong Kong
Expand your world view with China insights and our unique perspective of Asian news
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Lai See

Ben Kwok

Published:

Updated:

Time to fill your boots as BNP delivers the good news

BNP Paribas has been making a name for itself calling the market over the past few years.

The French brokerage was the first to be a party pooper by saying the Hang Seng Index would go below 20,000 when it was flirting around the 30,000 mark two years ago.

The index actually dipped below 11,000 after the global financial meltdown.

Then BNP was among the first to predict a turnaround just as the market bottomed out on October 27, 2008.

Now it is looking for three in a row by getting bullish on Chinese equities for the next five years.

The reasoning is simple. Chinese equities did not come to the market until early 1990 so now they are coming to the end of their wild teenage period and entering their adulthood when they are expected to reach their prime between 2010 and 2020.

BNP managing director Erwin Sanft is looking to five mega trends:

1) China equities will continue to outperform developed markets.

2) There will be a rise in small-caps.

3) Watch out for the consumer, health care, information technology, vehicle and capital goods sectors.

4) The Hong Kong asset class will finally boom.

5) The disappearance of B shares.

Well, if he is right, the Hang Seng Index will be back at 30,000, China will take over from the United States as the world's largest economy in five years, the local property market will go up another 30 per cent and HSBC could hit HK$300.

That should keep everybody happy.

Too many tears already

Lloyds Banking Group is issuing new contingent convertible capital notes, or CoCos for short, which one British fund manager has likened to the legendary Coco the clown because they are a combination of opposites.

He wrote on the Bond Vigilantes blog of the fund management unit of Prudential, Britain's largest insurer, that clowns represent mirth and sadness while CoCo mingles attributes of debt and equity.

'Are these clowns happy or are they sad?'

The securities are a good idea for banks, regulators and taxpayers, he argued, because they will 'actually convert to equity just when banks need it most'.

We can't see Hong Kong investors rushing to order up a boatload. The last time they bought hybrid securities that looked like bonds, it all ended in tears.

'Bag lady fund' spills over

We've all done it: tucked a HK$100 bill away at the back of the wallet or purse for emergencies.

Even billionaire media personality Oprah Winfrey (left) believes in taking precautions.

According to a report in New York, she keeps US$50 million in cash 'for what she called her bag lady fund, in case her fortunes changed'.

As clear as crystal

Clear Media won a special mention at this year's Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants best corporate governance disclosure awards in the non-Hang Seng Index for mid-to-small companies category.

The magic word was, as its trademark suggested, clear.

The chief judge, Paul Winkelmann, said, 'Clear Media was clear. They did make clear what they did in their corporate governance. They have clearly moved forward.'

Measure of responsibility

CSI is not just a popular television series, it could soon be an important benchmark to follow.

In celebration of its 40th anniversary, Hang Seng Indexes is looking to launch a new index - the Corporate Sustainability Index (CSI) - which will group companies in Hong Kong and the mainland in terms of their environmental, social and governance contribution next year.

We expect to see companies competing to jump on the new bandwagon so they can crow about their sense of corporate social responsibility.

After you, Madam

Former government minister Frederick Ma Si-hang is not the highest-paid non-executive director. His HK$3.5 million pay cheque is lower than the HK$3.64 million picked up by Lai Sun International non-executive director U Po-chu - and even that was down 0.67 per cent on the previous year.

The 84-year-old director is the mother of deputy chairman Peter Lam Kin-ngok and the widow of the late founder Lim Por-yen.

She has been on the board for 19 years.

Looks like Lam is a generous son.

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Time to fill your boots as BNP delivers the good news

BNP Paribas has been making a name for itself calling the market over the past few years.


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