China’s carbon dioxide emissions are seeing a rebound this year, as transport services are resumed and power demand rises due to heatwaves.
China’s carbon emissions grew 10 per cent year on year in the second quarter of 2023, exceeding even the previous record levels seen in 2021 by 1 per cent, according to an analysis published by Helsinki-based research organisation Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea).
“The increase is due to two factors: a comparison to the steep drop in the second quarter of 2022 caused by Covid-19 lockdowns in Shanghai and across the country, and the ongoing plunge in hydropower generation caused by droughts,” CREA’s lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta and China analyst Qi Qin said in a report published on Thursday.
China, the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, has pledged to peak its greenhouse gases emissions by the end of this decade and reach net-zero emissions by 2060, to help tackle climate change.
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced in 2021 that the country, also the world’s biggest coal consumer and producer, would start phasing down coal use from 2026 as part of its efforts to slash carbon emissions. However, the country has embarked on a massive expansion of its coal-fired power capacity following power outages across China in 2021 and last year.
Coal-fired power generation increased by 15 per cent and oil consumption, driven by diesel and petrol from transport, increased by 18 per cent in the second quarter as compared with the same period last year, making these two sectors the largest sources of increases in emissions, according to Crea, which compiled data from government agencies such as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the National Energy Administration of China, the China Electricity Council and Wind Information, an industry data provider.
Electricity consumption in the second quarter increased by 5 per cent year on year, a contribution of the hotter summer this year and an increase in demand for cooling.
Hydropower generation in China has, on the other hand, collapsed since the third quarter of 2022 as a result of droughts and low rainfall, which has led to an increase in coal-fired power generation, according to Crea.
“Without the short-term variation in hydropower output and rebound in oil consumption after the ‘zero-Covid’ period, emissions would have stabilised already,” the analysts said, adding that the increase in emissions is due to a one-off situation rather than structural factors.
Local governments approved nearly 30 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in the second quarter of 2023, driving total approvals to 50.4GW in the first half of the year, more than half of last year’s total installation and far exceeding 2021’s full-year total, according to environmental group Greenpeace.
Meanwhile, the country has also increased coal imports, with the volume of imported coal almost doubling in the first half of this year, according to data from NBS last month.
“Local governments want to ensure energy supply and to stabilise the economy, and [they] consider coal power as the safest solution for energy security,” said Gao Yuhe, a Beijing-based project leader with Greenpeace East Asia.
The increase in coal power should, however, not be confused with an intentional or systemic shift in the power mix towards coal, the Crea analysts said.
“The increase in power generation from thermal power plants [ones that burn fossil fuels or biomass] is the automatic short-term response of any power system to a drop in non-fossil power generation,” Myllyvirta and Qin said. “The surge in [coal] imports makes it even clearer that the domestic [coal] mining boom has run into limits.”
The key problem that China’s energy security ambitions face is “rigid and outdated” electricity grid management, Myllyvirta said.
With heatwaves and droughts expected to become more common and power demand increasing as a result, China needs to work on improving its grid operations, including increasing investment in electricity storage and energy efficiency in buildings and appliances, rather than relying on coal, he said.