Sales this Lunar New Year are unlikely to be much of a saviour for luxury purveyors.
The world's biggest prestige retailers, including Kering, LVMH and Prada, were pinched after a tough fourth quarter last year affected by pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Protests against mainlanders in the New Territories this month and a stronger Hong Kong dollar against the yuan suggest no easing up in the retail environment.
On Sunday, Italian fashion house Prada announced disappointing sales figures that indicated the lacklustre performance in Hong Kong and Macau has extended into January.
Prada's preliminary sales figures for the year to January were €3.55 billion (HK$31.4 billion), down 1 per cent year on year, missing the consensus estimate of €3.57 billion in a Bloomberg analyst survey.
The Hong Kong-listed firm highlighted Asia as a tough region, down 7 per cent at constant exchange rates, dragged down by Hong Kong and Macau.
"The fall in sales in this area originated primarily in Hong Kong and Macau where market conditions deteriorated significantly during the second half of the year," a company announcement said. "The different timing of the Chinese New Year also affected performance for the month of January throughout the greater China area."
Last year, the lunar new year fell on January 31; this year it began on February 19.
Days earlier, Gucci-owner Kering posted full-year results that showed Hong Kong, where mainland tourists flock for shopping, was also hurting revenue on a group-wide basis.
"Considering the importance of the fourth quarter [due to holiday spending] and Hong Kong and Macau overall, [growth was] slightly negative in the fourth quarter," Kering Group chief financial officer Jean-Marc Duplaix said. "On mainland China we continue to be cautious."
Separately, luxury powerhouse LVMH reported its first fall in operating profit in five years earlier this month. Its core earnings fell 5 per cent to €5.7 billion last year, after its high-end wines and spirits suffered from slower cognac sales on the mainland where an anti-graft drive has pushed expensive bottles for gifting and banqueting out of favour.
Initial data indicates that a significant recovery during the lunar new year holiday is a long shot.
"Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals to Hong Kong came in fairly soft for the first four days of the Chinese New Year holidays, up less than 1 per cent year on year, versus last year up 14 per cent," CLSA consumer analyst Mariana Kou said. Only 506,000 mainlanders visited the city in the four days from February 18.
"Our channel checks indicate that traffic in popular tourist shopping districts was a tad light, with only short queues in front of luxury goods shops on Canton Road," said Kou.
The Hong Kong Retail Management Association on February 13 said expectations for lunar new year business were not high. "We've seen a lot of companies reduce staff and other internal costs," it said.