Since US President Donald Trump’s pledge to make America great again, the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement between Canada, Mexico and the US has been under pressure. This ratcheted up another notch over the weekend as Trump said he would impose aluminium and steel import duties this week. Another bone of contention are lumber imports from Canada, reflected in the steady rally in prices since his election. February saw futures contracts hit a record high above the psychologically important level of US$500 per 1,000 random-length board feet. They also managed a record-high monthly close, well above anything ever seen. Though overbought, bullish momentum is almost at a record, so we expect them to continue higher for another month or two.

Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst