Cyclicals have stabilised against defensives in Asia, excluding Japan, since the middle of last month. The first test of this contrarian revival from an extended pessimism condition will be whether the relative can sustain a move back above the 50 level, which provided resistance at the end of last month and notable support back in 2012. A break above that would clear the way for a retest of the 53 level, which marks a 62 per cent retracement of this year's reversal in Asia, excluding Japan, cyclicals against defensives. It would also be a step nearer a retest of long-term trend-line resistance around the relative's mid-year highs.