It’s in China’s best interest to rein in a nuclearised North Korea

As North Korea develops tactical nuclear warheads, China must not allow Pyongyang to threaten regional security
Radioactive leakage could impact communities along the Chinese border in the event of a seventh atomic test

Lee Min-Yong

Published: 5:30am, 24 Mar 2024

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Amid assessments that a seventh North Korea nuclear test hinges on leader Kim Jong-un’s decision, the timing of its execution remains a matter of utmost concern. Experts indicate that North Korea had met the technical prerequisites for yet another nuclear test as of March 2023.

Officials from the United States and South Korea said the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site was ready as of the first half of 2022. Given that the primary objective of the seventh nuclear test is to develop tactical nuclear warheads, last year’s unveiling of North Korea’s new warhead model, Hwasan-31, satisfies this requirement.

Undoubtedly, China shoulders the primary responsibility for North Korea’s nuclear status. This is evident as China, while adopting UN Security Council resolutions to impose sanctions on North Korea, has simultaneously pursued a dual approach of engagement, affording North Korea a window of opportunity.

Despite China’s professed commitment to stability on the Korean peninsula, its tolerance of North Korea’s nuclear programme undermines these claims, leading to criticism that China lacks credibility when advocating for strategic cooperation with the US or discussing security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region.

Even when South Korea attempted to attain nuclear weapons back in the 1970s, the US stopped it after forgoing the total withdrawal of American troops from South Korea. While the US focuses on deterring North Korea to maintain stability on the Korean peninsula, China has consistently erred by tacitly allowing North Korea’s destabilising behaviour, which exacerbates regional insecurity.

Considering that India and Pakistan have attained the status of de facto nuclear-armed states with just three and two tests respectively, a seventh North Korean nuclear test would present a challenge that surpasses the capabilities of those two countries.

North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, including the development of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology, reconnaissance satellites and cruise missiles, threaten the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime and the established order of nuclear powers. While this raises immediate concerns for South Korea’s nuclear security, there are reports that also warn of dangerous developments affecting China’s security.

In particular, China’s security interests are severely challenged by two threats. Firstly, North Korea’s nuclear weapon advancement can cause great environmental damage through a chain of missile launches and nuclear tests. The heightened risk of radiation leaks and earthquakes, particularly in northeastern China, presents a looming threat of devastation.

Secondly, the reinforcement of extended deterrence efforts by US allies, such as Nato, could accelerate the implementation of a blockade in East Asia. As North Korea’s nuclear capabilities advance, there is a greater risk of global nuclear proliferation, which could lead to the establishment of maritime defence lines by the US and its allies.

Some hawkish experts argue that if North Korea’s nuclear arsenal grows rapidly to a point where deterrence is unavoidable, pre-emptive strikes or decapitation operations should not be ruled out.

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Concerns have already been raised in China about the risks of radiation leaks and earthquakes being more severe than anticipated should North Korea conduct a seventh nuclear test.

Since the sixth nuclear test in 2017, grave warnings have been given by scientists, including those based on research from the University of Science and Technology of China. There have been repeated warnings about the increased risk of a collapse at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site due to successive nuclear tests, increasing fears of radioactive material leakage.

Scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences have reportedly expressed these concerns to their North Korean counterparts. Considering that Punggye-ri is situated just 80 kilometres from the Chinese northeast border, where up to 100 million residents live, doubts have emerged that radiation leaks have been absent during the six previous nuclear tests.

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Meanwhile, the results of radiation exposure tests conducted by the South Korean government on 10 defectors from Punggye-ri indicate significantly elevated radiation levels, with five of them exhibiting a degree of severity that suggests genetic mutations.

Seismic activity triggered by nuclear tests has surpassed critical levels. Initially recorded at magnitude 4.3 during the first test, it escalated to 6.3 by the sixth, suggesting that a potential seventh test could exceed magnitude 7. This escalation raises concerns about a potential nightmare scenario: the eruption of Mount Paektu.

Since the sixth nuclear test, more than 40 natural earthquakes have occurred in an area previously devoid of seismic activity, heightening the risk of ground collapse. South Korean media has aired geological reports suggesting an imminent eruption of Mount Paektu, intensifying concerns that North Korea’s seventh nuclear test could accelerate volcanic activity.

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Mount Paektu is considered to be among the world’s most dangerous volcanoes that could erupt at any moment, with predictions indicating it could surpass the power of the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia.

Given such potential consequences, it is imperative for China to reconsider the rationale and justification for granting North Korea nuclear power status. From a regional security standpoint, China must take action to prevent nuclear proliferation and protect the region’s shared ecology.

Let’s hope that strong pressure from China has influenced North Korea to refrain from conducting a seventh atomic test. Whatever the reasons may be, it is crucial for the Chinese government to recognise the imperative of preventing yet another nuclear test.

Lee Min-Yong is a visiting professor in the School of Global Service at Sookmyung Women’s University, South Korea and a former adviser (foreign affairs and national security to the Presidential Office of the Republic of Korea