Trump’s UN speech and Germany’s election show borders are back
Niall Ferguson says boundaries between countries are determined more by force than logic or democracy, and the rejection today of globalism by the likes of Donald Trump will only harm small nations
In 1985, five European states signed the Schengen Agreement, abolishing border checks between them. In 1996, John Perry Barlow wrote his Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, addressed to the “governments of the industrial world”. He told them: “Cyberspace does not lie within your borders.”
“As president of the United States,” he said, “I will always put America first, just like you, as the leaders of your countries, will always, and should always, put your countries first.” Trump’s assertion was one of the few lines in the speech that won applause.
Yet when you reflect on borders, you see how strange the world is. Ninety-five per cent of all people live in fewer than 90 countries. Yet the United Nations has 193 members. Among its most recent recruits are East Timor (1.3 million) and Montenegro (629,000).
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A hundred years ago, US president Woodrow Wilson naively assumed a world based on national self-determination rather than imperialism would be stable. But in Europe and the Middle East, populations were not distributed in homogeneous blocks but patchwork quilts of religion, language and ethnicity. Trying to create nation states in Europe paved the way for the second world war, not least because it legitimised the vision of a Greater Germany that inspired the Austrian Adolf Hitler.
The modern world order is not fair. There are nearly as many Indians as Chinese, but only China is on the UN Security Council. There are more Germans than French or British citizens, yet France and Britain are among the five permanent UN Security Council members, along with the US, Russia and China. Permanent members owe their status to past victories, or past alliances compensating for defeat.
The North Koreans are threatening to detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific. The other members of the “P5” are waking up to the possibility that Trump has a real, if risky, military option.
Borders are a function of power. If you can’t defend them, they are just dotted lines. The Kim dynasty’s calculation has been that nukes are the ultimate border guards. We shall soon find if that calculation is correct. If so, many more states will want them. If not, we shall be back in the 19th century, when the great powers played their Great Game with everyone else’s borders.
Niall Ferguson’s new book, The Square and the Tower, will be published on October 5