China must be part of Korean peace negotiations to prevent further mistrust
Zhang Baohui says that as Korea peace talks expand to include the United States, the parties involved should consider adding China as well, to avoid a repeat of deteriorating relations between Russia and the West
Few, if any, South Korean diplomats and security experts suggest that the US-South Korea alliance would end after inter-Korean reconciliation. Therefore, rather than the US military pulling out, it is more likely that a new set of balancing dynamics would emerge, directed against China.
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Offensive realism, on the other hand, suggests that anarchy motivates great powers to try to seize any opportunities to establish advantages over their rivals. This logic suggests that the US will not give up any strategic opportunities created by Korean reconciliation that may allow it to establish an advantage over China in the region.
Such scenarios no doubt worry China. To prevent the rise of strategic mistrust and security rivalry in the region, Beijing should be incorporated into the Korean peace process and given a voice in the building of a new security mechanism for the peninsula.
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As stated by the declaration, Pyongyang and Seoul “agreed to actively pursue trilateral meetings involving the two Koreas and the United States, or quadrilateral meetings involving the two Koreas, the United States and China with a view to declaring an end to the [w]ar, turning armistice into a peace treaty, and establishing a permanent and solid peace regime”.
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However, China currently believes South Korea prefers a trilateral process with only itself, North Korea and the US. Because the fault lines of conflicts in the peninsula lie between North Korea and the US-South Korea alliance, this trilateral process makes a lot of sense - but not to China.
In contrast, a quadrilateral format should help to address China’s strategic anxiety about the direction of regional security. It would give Beijing a role in designing a new security framework.
Seoul and Washington should be aware of China’s concerns and be willing to accommodate its legitimate security interests in the peninsula and the region. Such a move could prevent a security dilemma and a new round of strategic competition that would leave everyone feeling less secure.
Zhang Baohui is a professor of political science and director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong. He is the author of China’s Assertive Nuclear Posture: State Security in an Anarchic International Order