The US should rein in Taiwan’s latest presidential hopeful to prevent a cross-strait crisis

With former premier William Lai throwing his hat into Taiwan’s presidential race and espousing a distinctly anti-China agenda, cross-strait ties are heading for turbulence

Zhang Baohui

Published: 3:00am, 21 Mar 2019

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On Monday, Taiwan experienced nothing short of a political earthquake. Former premier William Lai Ching-te unexpectedly announced he would seek the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) nomination to run in the presidential election in January 2020. This means he will challenge President Tsai Ing-wen, who has declared her intention to seek re-election.

Lai’s pro-independence and anti-China stance makes this an ominous turn in Taiwanese politics. Shortly after taking office as premier in 2017, Lai said: “I am a political worker who advocates Taiwan independence, but I am also a pragmatic pro-Taiwan independence theorist.”

On January 23, soon after stepping down as premier, Lai said he supports a new constitution that reflects a Taiwan-centric national identity, as opposed to the Chinese identity embodied in the current constitution.

Indeed, his public announcement of candidacy was largely an anti-China diatribe. He said he doesn’t want Taiwan to turn into another Hong Kong and Tibet, and reiterated his opposition to China’s interpretation of the 1992 Consensus, according to which both sides of the Taiwan Strait agree to abide by the “one-China principle”.

Lai has therefore delivered the opening salvo in an anti-China-themed election platform. As the DPP relies heavily on public opinion surveys in choosing its candidate for the general election, Lai will almost certainly prevail over Tsai, who suffered a major defeat in the November local elections and has been doing very poorly in public opinion polls.

As Lai is the most openly pro-independence DPP presidential candidate ever, his nomination will push Taiwan and China onto a collision course this year, presaging heightened instability across the Taiwan Strait.

The 2020 election will be defined by the most explosive issue in Taiwanese politics. It is clear that Lai intends to use identity politics to shape the election discourse.

In addition to the anti-China bent of his announcement, he also indicated he would, if elected, pardon Chen Shui-bian, the former pro-independence president who was convicted and imprisoned on corruption charges. This promise is designed to appeal to the DPP’s “deep green” faction, which has long preached Taiwan’s de jure independence.

In fact, Lai openly called for a contest between him and Han Kuo-yu, the current Kuomintang (KMT) mayor of Kaohsiung.

Han is the KMT’s rising political star and champions the 1992 Consensus as the basis of Taiwan’s relations with China. Lai is essentially calling for a referendum on cross-strait relations.

In her 2016 presidential election campaign, Tsai had appealed to centrist voters through a moderate position on cross-strait relations. She convinced enough of these voters to hand her a win in the election.

In contrast, because the current political situation is gravely unfavourable to the DPP, which has lost public support, especially among moderate voters, Lai is pursuing the opposite election strategy, seeking to energise the party’s base through a pro-independence and anti-China platform. This strategy will no doubt tear apart Taiwanese society and rock the foundation of cross-strait relations.

Han Kuo-yu, at the time the Kuomintang candidate for Kaohsiung’s mayoral seat, attends a campaign rally in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on November 23, 2018. Photo: Reuters

In a report titled “Averting a Cross-Strait Crisis” published in February, Michael Chase, a political scientist with Rand Corporation, warned of exactly this possibility, although he could not have foreseen Lai’s candidacy. Indeed, until Monday, the consensus among political pundits was that Tsai would represent the DPP in the election.

To prevent the looming crisis across the Taiwan Strait, the US should be willing to restrain a revisionist DPP this year. Chase notes: “A cross-strait crisis in the run-up to Taiwan’s 2020 elections or shortly after would present serious risks to US interests.”

While Washington will continue to seek to deter Beijing from undertaking risky actions across the strait, it should also discourage Lai’s use of identity politics to shape the 2020 election.

Washington holds the key to Taiwan Strait stability and its positions can profoundly affect Taipei’s policies and choices. In fact, the US has already shown a willingness to dampen pro-independence politics inside Taiwan.

For example, after the pro-independence group Formosa Alliance called for a referendum on Taiwan’s independence in February, the American Institute in Taiwan said the US does not support the idea and that this has been a long-standing US policy.

While Lai is unlikely to openly champion de jure independence, his identity politics will no doubt turn 2019 into a year of rising instability. Washington should keep a close eye on the election and be willing to intervene if pro-independence forces stray too far.

Maintaining cross-strait stability remains a key interest that China and the US share. While Beijing can do little to deter Lai from pursuing a deliberate anti-China election strategy, Washington can do more. As the main security backer of Taiwan, the US can use a variety of means to restrain Lai and keep him from pursuing risky policies that will ignite crises across the strait.

Zhang Baohui is a professor of political science and director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong. He is the author of China’s Assertive Nuclear Posture: State Security in an Anarchic International Order

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