Arctic ambitions of China, Russia – and now the US – need not spark a cold war
- While competition over access to resources is inevitable, security concerns aside, the three share many common interests. Recent US investment in the Arctic to counter Chinese and Russian influence heightens the need for partnership
The United States has always been a reluctant power in the Arctic. It has invested very little into its Arctic resources – with no real ports along Alaska’s Arctic waters, little military presence, and insufficient diplomatic engagement. However, in February, the US government allocated a total of US$675 million in funding for new icebreakers, which military leaders deem vital for competing with Russia and China in the Arctic.
When US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited America’s Nato ally, Iceland, on February 15, he also discussed China and Russia’s growing presence in the Arctic. It seems that the US has begun to shift its Arctic policy, now aimed at countering the growing influence of China and Russia in the high north.
Russia and China, though sharing a common desire in many aspects, have a complex relationship balancing competition and cooperation, with lingering mistrust on both sides. Their Arctic relationship will continue to be shaped by pragmatism, with a focus on mutual economic benefits rather than a strategic pact. Russia will remain cautious about Chinese ambitions. On the other hand, China will be wary of any movement by Arctic states to close access to the Arctic Ocean for any non-Arctic state.
Reviewing the US’ existing cooperation with Russia and China may also provide a broader view. For the most part, the US and China enjoy converging interests in the Arctic. China has the potential to be a strong partner if the two nations can address questions that are important to both.
The US and the Russia already cooperate on a wide variety of issues in the Arctic. They have signed a binding agreement to facilitate the conduct of research. And, in May last year, the International Maritime Organisation approved a joint US-Russian proposal for ship-routing measures in the Bering Strait.
Further, the Arctic Coast Guard Forum brings all eight Arctic states closer together to address their shared challenges in search and rescue operations in the region. At the Arctic Council, the US and Russia cooperate on initiatives related to environmental protection and sustainable development.
If this momentum of multilateral cooperation can be sustained over a meaningful period, it may help address other pressing issues of global importance in the Arctic. One example is a five-year project, Arctic Search and Rescue, which aims to improve Arctic emergency response capabilities. Thirteen nations, including the US and Russia, will participate.
Though China is not listed as a participating country, joining the project would be in its interests, considering the need for emergency-support and disaster-response capabilities.
The complex relationships between the US, Russia and China in the Arctic also raise concerns among other Arctic players. Spurred by China’s increased interest, Russia’s military presence, and the shift of American policy positions, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker last month called on the EU to take a leadership role in the Arctic, and increase European access to Arctic oil, gas, minerals, fish stocks and shipping routes.
Arctic governance involves multiple stakeholders – Arctic states, observers at the Arctic Council, indigenous peoples, and international institutions, among others. Competition is unavoidable. Arctic and non-Arctic states have different rights, interests and specific concerns. However, peace, stability and sustainable development in the Arctic serve the common interests of all stakeholders.
Cooperative partnerships that promote and enhance these interests will surely be the most appropriate way forward in a region of growing global importance.
Nong Hong, PhD, is executive director and senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies (US). www.chinaus-icas.org