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People participate in a rally on February 10 in Madrid, Spain, called by the People’s Party and Ciudadanos to demand a general election. The rally was organised to protest against talks between Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government and Catalan pro-independence leaders. Photo: EPA-EFE
Opinion
The View
by Andrew Hammond
The View
by Andrew Hammond

Brexit apart, Spain’s political uncertainty is a microcosm of the euro zone’s deepening troubles

  • The Spanish prime minister’s call for an early general election is symptomatic of governmental instability and stagnating growth across the euro zone. A no-deal Brexit is not a shock the single currency region could bear easily
Political parties in Spain will enter campaign mode this week after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Friday called for an early general election, the third such ballot in as many years. However, far from being an exception, the latest political uncertainty in the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy comes as there are mounting signs of political instability and stagnating growth in other large European economies like Germany, France and Italy.
With the euro zone “celebrating” its 20th anniversary this year, the single currency area stands on the brink of yet another downturn. This is even before the possibility next month of a no-deal Brexit which could be a significant economic shock across the continent.
The call for a general election in Spain, to be held on April 28, comes only eight months after Sánchez was sworn in as the nation’s prime minister. The political instability in the country is mirrored in France, where President Emmanuel Macron remains under severe pressure from the “yellow vest” protests, in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s long period in power is in its twilight, and in Italy, where Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was forced last week to dismiss speculation that reported tension between coalition partners the Five Star Movement and the League could cause it to collapse.

Moreover, this political angst, alongside the continuing drama of Brexit, appears to be contributing to flagging European economic growth. On Wednesday, for instance, it was announced that euro-zone factories saw a production slump in December for the second month in a row.

Industrial production was 0.9 per cent lower in December than November, according to the Eurostat statistics agency, the fourth fall in six months. Overall, the euro zone grew by only 0.2 per cent in the last three months of 2018.

A robot installs a windscreen on the production line of the Daimler factory in Rastatt, Germany, on February 4. Euro-zone factories saw a production slump in December for a second month in a row. Photo: Reuters

Italy fell into recession in the final three months of 2018, in a blow to the populist, right-wing government which has promised to rejuvenate growth. And it was announced on Thursday that Germany had only very narrowly avoided a recession after the nation’s gross domestic product was flat in the October-December quarter, following a contraction from July to September.

It is amid this economic angst that the latest Spanish political setback comes, underlining deep uncertainty over the nation’s future governance. This is because the ruling Socialist Party, which currently leads opinion polls with around 30 per cent of support, is nonetheless still widely blamed for the fact that it was also in government around a decade ago when the Spanish economy went into deep recession. It currently has only 84 members of parliament in the 350-seat legislature. This tally follows the party’s worst national election showing, in 2016, since Spain transitioned to democracy after the 1975 death of dictator Francisco Franco.

The fragile legislative position of the Socialist Party, which has headed a minority government since the middle of last year, comes in the context of an even bigger story in Spanish politics following the June 2016 election, which saw no party emerge with an overall majority.

A dominant narrative of that ballot, the second in the space of six months, was the shattering of the long-running political duopoly of the right-of-centre People’s Party and the Socialist Party that has dominated the country since the late 1970s. Indeed, the combined vote of the two parties, which was around 85 per cent of the ballot in the 2008 general election, fell to around 55 per cent in 2016.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called for snap elections in April after his draft budget was rejected in parliament over Catalan separatist leaders being put on trial for their role in a 2017 bid for Catalonia’s independence from Spain. Photo: Reuters
Several “new” parties have helped fill the political vacuum left by the People’s Party and the Socialist Party. This includes a new far-right nationalist party Vox, which could secure parliamentary seats for the first time this spring.
Other relatively new parties include the left-wing, anti-austerity Podemos and Izquierda Unida, collectively known as Unidos Podemos, and the centrist, business friendly Ciudadano. The rise of these groups has been fuelled by popular anger over political scandals, the fallout from the deepest economic recession in the country for over a generation and the growing political clamour for independence in Catalonia.

A key backdrop to the April election is the tension between Madrid and separatists in Catalonia. Separatist tensions reached a peak in 2017 when Catalonia sought to break away from Spain in a referendum. While this dramatically escalated the issue, the backdrop for the event was rising support for Catalan independence since 2010, when a reform to extend the regional government’s powers was struck down by the Spanish Constitutional Court.

With the potential for significant continuing political uncertainty in Spain, financial markets may become increasingly jittery as the election outcome may not provide even short-term stability.

If political risks were to rise significantly in the coming weeks, as pre-election polling begins, this could undermine the Spanish economic recovery, which follows a recession that saw a property crash and unemployment peaking at 27 per cent.

Taken overall, the new Spanish governmental uncertainty is a microcosm of wider political angst within the euro zone, including in the other large economies of Italy, France and Germany. This instability across these euro-zone nations may drive the single currency area into a significant new slump, especially if the shock of a no-deal Brexit adds to the continent’s current woes.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Deep in the danger zone
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