Trump owes Americans the truth about the goals of his China policy – economic changes, containment or regime change
- More Americans are concerned about the impact of China’s economic might on their livelihoods than its military strength. However, Trump seems bent on a geopolitical struggle, a shift in policy that calls for debate
Geopolitics has been the primary cause of the rapid deterioration of US-China relations over the last two years, and Trump’s trade war must be viewed in this context. US tariffs may be focused on undermining China’s long-term economic potential, but the underlying motivation is to weaken China as a strategic rival.
But only 29 per cent of respondents cited China’s military might as a cause for concern, compared to the 58 per cent who are worried about its economic prowess. This suggests that, in the eyes of most Americans, the primary objective of relations with China should be to protect their livelihoods, not to initiate a geopolitical confrontation.
Yet, a geopolitical confrontation seems to be precisely what the Trump administration is engineering – possibly at the expense of many Americans’ livelihoods. This disconnect reflects the extent to which the shift in America’s China policy has occurred out of the public’s view and without open debate.
Such a debate is urgently needed. Though the trade war has been dominating headlines since it began, much of the American public is unaware of the extent of the transformation in US policy towards China, which exposes their country to an open-ended conflict with what will soon be the world’s largest economy and its leading emerging power.
In a democracy, a government cannot pursue a long-term struggle with a powerful geopolitical adversary without sustained political support from an informed public. Special attention should be paid to young people, who, according to Pew, have a significantly more favourable view of China than their elders do, because they will bear the brunt of the costs of the unfolding Sino-American cold war.
The final question that must be asked concerns multilateral cooperation. To confront shared challenges – some of which, like climate change and nuclear proliferation, actually are existential threats – the world needs such cooperation more than ever. Can the US embrace a policy of confrontation towards China without precluding collaboration on issues where it is required?
The signatories of the open letter – as well as a slew of renowned economists, politicians, and thinkers – have presented an informed and thoughtful statement of their collective views on China. The Trump administration must illuminate its own vision and goals to the people it is supposed to represent.
Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and the author of China’s Crony Capitalism, is the inaugural Library of Congress Chair in US-China Relations. Copyright: Project Syndicate