Hong Kong’s protesters have tried war, now it’s time for them to try dialogue and politics

If war is the continuation of politics by other means, the opposition should ask whether it can achieve its goals through violence. Clearly, dialogue and reaching political solutions is the way forward

Ken Davies

Published: 6:00am, 30 Oct 2019

Why you can trust SCMP

I agree with the many on all sides who criticise Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s performance. Her response to an extradition request from Taiwan was grossly mishandled, showing a lack of foresight and a failure to listen to contrary opinions. Policy mistakes were compounded by tactlessness and reluctance to lead from the front, hiding behind the police force and occasionally emerging to engage with the public at arms’ length.

But the opposition is also open to criticism. Having focused on a single demand – withdrawal of the extradition bill – it refused to acknowledge Lam’s eventual surrender on this issue.

Instead of ignoring her invitation to dialogue simply because she had not caved in on the four demands they had added in the meantime, those calling for more democracy should have announced that they had succeeded in obtaining their first objective, then begun serious talks with the government on further demands.

Had they the maturity and organisational capability to do that, much of the subsequent violence could have been avoided. The opposition could have pointed to the peaceful nature of the huge demonstrations in June and July as the cause of its triumph. They would thus bring with them a huge portion – maybe a majority – of the population of Hong Kong, who want political reform but do not want mayhem.

Instead, they have left the field open to the violent protesters, the triads and local hooligans, whose actions are least likely to lead to any improvement in the political situation. What is the value of smashing up MTR stations and shops, of attacking police housing, of beating up individuals who say they support the police?

And how does it benefit democracy to engage in racist taunting of mainland Chinese or locals who are heard speaking Mandarin? Yes, there are the pro-government thugs who attacked Jimmy Sham Tsz-kit with hammers and have committed crimes elsewhere, but that is no justification for similar behaviour by protesters.

Plunging tourist numbers. Closed shops. Thousands of workers unemployed. Transport stopped or disrupted. Unsafe streets. Recession on the way. Are these laudable achievements? Just side-effects? Deliberate pressure on the government? Whatever the answer, they are not outcomes sought by most people in Hong Kong.

One-two blow of protests and trade spat won’t kill Hong Kong

The opposition disclaiming responsibility is no good. You break it, you pay for it. It’s time for those who initiated the campaign against the extradition law to behave like grown-ups. That doesn’t mean giving up or surrendering. It means getting organised, exercising discipline, and developing and implementing a strategy.

Carl von Clausewitz’s most famous quotation is really a summary of his writing rather than a direct quote: “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.” In other words, the aim of fighting is to achieve a political end. Fighting for its own sake achieves nothing but death and destruction.

There has been more than enough fighting. Now it’s time for real politics. For the opposition, that means engaging in dialogue with the government, no matter how little confidence you may have in your interlocutor. Yes, Lam is ham-fisted. Yes, she refuses your demands at the outset.

But last month she did at last put herself in front of her critics and subject herself to a bombardment of raw emotion. Isn’t that a necessary first step? Well, she took it.

Lam must hold on while Beijing considers qualities needed in city’s next leader

Maybe the opposition can’t get its act together. Maybe it can only heckle, as it did during Lam’s policy address last week. Maybe it can’t bring violent elements under control. Maybe it doesn’t have a unified political position. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

But, sooner or later, it is going to have to put its own house in order, or this chaos will go on and on until it either peters out with nothing achieved or else is suppressed with extreme violence by you-know-who.

I don’t think this has to be the case. The protesters have organised enormous peaceful demonstrations. Most of them have shown calm perseverance. They have exhibited innovative organisational skills, albeit sometimes used to pursue pointlessly violent objectives. There is more than enough talent available.

So, now get on with it. Gather yourselves and develop a negotiating strategy. Talk to the government. Bring in people from various walks of life who have something to contribute. Make this a positive dialogue, not a monologue. Listen to the concerns of the other side.

Try empathy. Explain yourself clearly, without blaming and shaming. Offer practical proposals that stand some chance of being accepted. Be ready to accept compromises while maintaining your principles. And call off the thugs and the smashers. They don’t help your cause. They alienate – and hurt – people.

It’s now time for peaceful dialogue, especially with those you disagree with. But then, it always is.

Ken Davies is the former chief economist, Asia, chief China economist, and Hong Kong bureau chief of the Economist Intelligence Unit in Hong Kong

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