From Donald Trump curbing his Twitter use to Xi Jinping retiring, here’s what won’t happen in 2020 – but probably should
- While it’s very unlikely that the world will make substantial progress on climate change or come to a complete agreement on geopolitical issues, some simpler developments are also unlikely to come to pass
Predictions for 2020? It’s a lot easier to predict what probably won’t happen in 2020 than what will. So why get taken for a wild ride on the sunny side of the street by “experts” only to get our hopes up, then dashed? There are many things we can easily agree will not happen next year.
That’s the obvious list. What’s far more interesting is what probably won’t happen in 2020 but arguably should. This less obvious list is offered as light finger food for thought. The intent here is to elicit vehement disagreement from you, while also marking where we earthlings are currently teetering on the high wire between dystopia and utopia.
The response from Seoul is tepid; South Korean President Moon Jae-in doubts the sincerity of each of the apologies. Never mind, by the end of the Olympics, Japan’s gold medal tally is twice its 2016 haul, far more than South Korea’s. But, medals aside, everyone would cheer if the two would play nice on the political field.
In Japan-Korea trade war, friendly gestures mean it’s worse than ever
Confucius Institutes’ link with espionage is taking paranoia too far
Sociologist Max Weber once said: “It is not true that good can follow only from good and evil only from evil, but that often the opposite is true. Anyone who fails to see this is, indeed, a political infant.” In his satirical novel, The Warden, Anthony Trollope also had some tart words for the excessively high-minded: “He took such high ground that there was no getting on to it.”
Another thing that won’t happen: Chinese President Xi Jinping retires. In China, the retirement age is 60 for men and (perhaps in a case of gender discrimination) 55 for female civil servants and 50 for other female workers. No one seems to want to point out to Xi that he is already over the limit at 66. Will he last until 95, the age of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, rated one of Asia’s sharpest leaders? Would Xi even want three more decades in office?
Mao led China from 1949 to 1976 – a span of 27 years. Many Chinese think that run was more than enough. China, for better or worse, is no Western democracy, but wise leaders will always listen to their people.
China’s president for life? Not Xi Jinping, a student of history
A final development we won’t see: only women taking very high office, at least for a certain period of time. Would the world be better off? The old Latin term used for the male quest for power is libido dominandi. Is the female gender free of such poisonous overreach in its DNA? Is it sexist to suggest this?
Political life these days is so confusing, don’t you agree? Let’s see what happens in 2020.
Clinical Professor Tom Plate is author of the “Giants of Asia” book quartet, Loyola Marymount University's Distinguished Scholar of Asian and Pacific Affairs, and the Pacific Century Institute's vice-president