China’s earthly concerns take priority over ‘space race’ with US

Any such race requires speed and competition, neither of which appear to be present in the US or Chinese space programmes of late
If China ever makes significant progress towards commercialising space resources, the US could then change and start competing

Chee Yik-wai

Published: 6:00am, 5 Aug 2020

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July was indisputably the Mars probing season of 2020. Two years after the last probe went to Mars, both the United States and China sent missions to Mars last month, with China launching Tianwen-1 on July 23.

News reports have fuelled a narrative of a “space race” between the two superpowers, especially amid increased tensions following the closures of the Chinese consulate in Houston and the US consulate in Chengdu. It is reminiscent of the Cold War, when the US and Soviet Union competed for ideological leadership by showing off their technological capabilities.

Who will win this space race? Can the US beat China like it once did the Soviet Union? Sorry to disappoint, but there is no space race between the US and China.

Any such race requires speed and competition, neither of which have been part of the US or Chinese space programmes so far. China is not engaging in a race as the Communist Party leadership’s top priority is avoiding the disintegration that ended the Soviet Union.

01:48

China launches mission to Mars with lift-off of home-grown Tianwen-1 spacecraft

Its leaders are understandably sensitive to the consequences of pointless competition for the sake of prestige. The Communist Party prioritises sustainability. There is no need to put beating the US in space above improving living conditions and eradicating poverty.

Space programmes require huge, often unsustainable amounts of investment. Such non-essential spending, especially in a post-pandemic world, poses a greater threat to China’s national security than US dominance in space capabilities.

Meanwhile, the US is hardly racing because it understands it is by far the global space leader and has difficulty getting bipartisan political support behind a need to rush. The US has not stuck to any truly revolutionary goal or programme long enough to finish it since it retired the Space Shuttle in 2011. Nasa relied on Russia for rides to the International Space Station from then until late May.

Each US president has typically directed changes in space priorities. The latest under President Donald Trump is the Artemis programme, which aims to land the first female astronaut on the moon by 2024.

It resembles the Apollo programme’s tight deadline but looks unlikely to succeed without proportionate funding and the post-Sputnik sense of imminent defeat. China is still too far behind to alarm US politicians into providing what Nasa needs.

02:15

Astronauts arrive at International Space Station on historic mission using private SpaceX rocket

Despite some encouraging successes, China’s space technology still lags behind the US outside a few narrow areas. It is catching up quickly, but it has several important milestones to achieve before having the competence to match the US or Russia.

Those milestones include successfully taking full control of a human orbital mission, extravehicular missions and craft rendezvous in orbit and docking Chinese craft on the International Space Station. They require a space agency to develop technological and operational experience performing these difficult tasks in space.

Could a China-led mission put the first humans on Mars? Possibly. China is slowly but steadily developing its operational experience, technology and astronaut corps towards establishing a human presence on Mars. In terms of the private sector, though, Chinese start-ups have just one successful orbital launch to date and trail far behind their US counterparts.

01:23

China launches last piece of BeiDou Navigation Satellite system into orbit

What about Beidou, China’s navigation satellite to rival GPS? It is essentially a responsible backup plan in the event of conflict with the US. The rest of the world is not required to choose one system but can use both to improve accuracy and reliability. Chinese participation in the Global Navigation Satellite Systems Providers’ Forum to discuss compatibility and interoperability between the two systems speaks volumes.

None of this is to minimise China’s space achievements. It is arguably the world’s No 2 space power but still not ready to overtake the US any time soon. There is no evidence the Communist Party leadership has a concrete plan to colonise space, and that will remain the case until the costs are clearer and the practical benefits more apparent.

If China ever makes significant progress towards commercialising space resources, the US could change and start competing. It would be for resources and wealth rather than prestige. That is how a new space race would really take off, not who lands on Mars first.

Chee Yik-wai is a Malaysia-based intercultural specialist and the co-founder of Crowdsukan focusing on sport diplomacy for peace and development

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