South China Morning Post
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US President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speak during the first presidential debate in Cleveland on September 29. If Trump loses next month’s election, he and his staff could be tempted to engage in scorched-earth tactics on their way out of the White House. Photo: TNS
Opinion
Opinion
by Douglas H. Paal
Opinion
by Douglas H. Paal

First step for US after a Joe Biden win is keeping Donald Trump from doing more harm

  • If Trump loses the election, he could impose a high cost on America’s reputation and government functions if he tries to stop a transition of power
  • First task after the election is to prevent Trump and his staff from engaging in scorched-earth tactics, before ensuring the government works properly again
Douglas H. Paal
Douglas H. Paal
Why you can trust SCMP
As the US presidential election rapidly closes in, heads are spinning with the pace of events. After a roller coaster-like summer, we had a presidential debate like no other, coronavirus infections at a White House superspreader event, contentious hearings for a Supreme Court nominee, and who knows what else will occur between now and November 3.

It is time to step back and take stock of what will follow the election. I will leave it to others to guess what will happen in terms of new policies and personnel. Incumbent US President Donald Trump seems unable to identify and recruit competent administrators. By contrast, Joe Biden reportedly has a cast of 2,000 self-identified foreign policy advisers alone.

My focus is on two things – what should not happen right after the election and what needs to happen early in the next presidential and Congressional term. The polls and Trump’s own chaotic and non-strategic behaviour show him in serious jeopardy of losing. There is also a not insignificant chance his defeat will lead to a Senate with a narrow Democratic majority and continued Democratic control of the House of Representatives.

If Trump does lose the vote, he has more than hinted he will fight or impede a smooth presidential transition. His chances of ultimate success are close to non-existent because doing that would be so far out of the mainstream of American history. However, that does not mean he will not try or that his efforts will not impose a high cost on America’s reputation and the government’s functioning.

A second, less-apparent risk is what Trump office holders may do on their way out the door. This could be very relevant to you, readers.

06:04

US-China relations: Joe Biden would approach China with more ‘regularity and normality’

US-China relations: Joe Biden would approach China with more ‘regularity and normality’

Throughout Trump’s presidency, his officials responsible for policy in Asia have had a decidedly more negative and destructive view of American links to China than Trump himself. He has restrained these officials in the narrow interest of pursuing trade deals.

He limited upgrades in relations with Taiwan for the same reason. Even after he concluded that he needed to blame China for the effects of the coronavirus in the United States, Trump would not permit talks to create a trade agreement with Taiwan. He may feel differently after losing.

What should not be permitted to happen right after the election is Trump officials using their remaining weeks in office to leave a lasting legacy of laying waste to relations with China and altering ties with Asian friends. This is not a question of whether current policies need review. The point is that those questions are for the next president and his team to decide, not Trump’s.

Congressional Republicans will potentially have a major role to play in providing the needed checks and balances to oversee an orderly transition of power. They should not tolerate any scorched-earth behaviour by outgoing officials.

02:39

The ‘Yiwu Index’: How a Chinese city could predict the result of the US Presidential election

The ‘Yiwu Index’: How a Chinese city could predict the result of the US Presidential election
The second, post-election challenge is for the US to restore its diminished credibility. Mismanaged conflicts in the Middle East, the global financial crisis of 2008 and Trump’s chaotic mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic have damaged America’s reputation and discomfited friends while emboldening adversaries.

Successful presidential first terms usually only accomplish two or three big things. Biden and his team cannot and should not waste time and their mandate in an attempt to right every wrong. At this moment in history, we need to show we can do something right, not necessarily everything. Better management of the Covid-19 pandemic would be an important good start.

A major step will also be to restore good order to the internal functioning of the federal government, which Trump has wrecked with personal whims and non-strategic preferences. The inter-agency process, if properly restored, should unleash a cascade of consequences big and small that will not require a host of legislative initiatives or executive orders.

The 8 states that will decide how the White House will be won

Biden as president will have the greatest legislative experience since Lyndon Johnson, a man who made enormous contributions such as the Civil Rights Act but who also had so many ambitions that they finally overwhelmed him.

Biden, through his everyday work with Congress, can work to restore good order to relations between the executive and legislative branches as well. Accumulating small win-wins can show the world America’s best days are not behind it.

In sum, like a good medical diagnosis, America in the next few months requires first doing no harm, followed by a return to the regular exercise of good orderly government.

Douglas H. Paal is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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