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Opinion

by Scott Kennedy

Opinion

by Scott Kennedy

For China, offering Biden a plastic olive branch would be worse than doing nothing

While Beijing choosing to test an incoming Biden administration would be bad, a superficial peace offering would be almost as harmful to US-China relations
Instead of coming to Washington with one-sided proposals, patience on China’s part will let Biden focus on his top priorities of handling the pandemic and restarting the US economy

Scott Kennedy

Published: 1:15am, 16 Nov 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

Does China want a good relationship with the United States? That is a reasonable question since Beijing took until Friday to congratulate US President-elect Joe Biden on his victory. Perhaps they were waiting for the results to be fully certified and sitting US President Donald Trump to admit defeat, but it is a sign that the Chinese leadership was thinking tactically, not strategically.

The bigger choice for Beijing is whether it decides to test an incoming Biden administration or offer an olive branch in the hopes of improving the relationship. Although no one should want China to threaten Taiwan militarily, put an American company on their “unreliable entity list” or sell off most of their holdings of US Treasuries, a superficial peace offering – a plastic olive branch – would be almost as harmful to ties.

One can easily assemble the elements of an insincere offer of better relations. It begins with empty rhetoric for increased mutual understanding and respect.

Take the recent statement from Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin: “We always believe China and the United States should strengthen communication and dialogue, manage differences on the basis of mutual respect, expand cooperation based on mutual benefit, and promote the sound and stable development of China-US relations.”

The second component would be to suggest returning ties to the pre-Trump status quo of 2016, with a mutual drawdown of tariffs, restoration of consulates and return of journalists. The third would be a call to cooperate on distributing a Covid-19 vaccine. The topper would be a proposal to renew institutionalised dialogues and agree to avoid further unilateral penalties.

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That approach is a non-starter. It is not because the US does not want good ties with Beijing but because this framework locks in a relationship on Beijing’s terms, one where it is only the American side that is required to compromise. This reinforces the impression that Beijing is unwilling to budge on issues important to the United States and its allies.

China made some concessions in the phase one trade talks. However, outside that narrow sphere, in just about every other area, China has moved in ways that cannot help but antagonise others.

President Xi Jinping has led a massive political tightening. From crackdowns in Xinjiang and Hong Kong to expanding digital surveillance and undercutting private entrepreneurs such as Jack Ma, China is reverting to a harsh form of authoritarianism. The state, not markets, dominate economically.

“Dual circulation” and technological self-reliance is China’s own form of decoupling. China appears ready to unleash a new wave of investment that could lead to overcapacity and flood global markets with electric cars, robotics, telecom equipment, optical fibre and flat panel displays.

Decoupling? Let the yuan rise and shine

An effort to integrate into global norms and institutions has been replaced by “wolf warrior” diplomacy aimed at making the world safe for China’s highly authoritarian, state-capitalist model. Hence, Beijing is hypersensitive to criticism of China and the Communist Party anywhere on the planet, in any language, and on any platform, even if technically not available inside the mainland.

Blocking the NBA from China’s media market, banning Australian imports, unjustly detaining Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor and intensifying pressure on Taiwan all typify this approach.

Fuelling this new dark era of illiberalism at home and abroad is an about-face by Beijing on key beliefs that once justified close ties with the United States. Among them are the US being a model to follow or learn from; economic interdependence reducing the chances of conflict; the US having effective self-correcting mechanisms; Washington accepting Communist Party rule as legitimate; Washington wanting China to succeed; and China being so weak it has no choice but to cooperate.

Although one could take exception to each one of these conclusions, it is hard to deny that this represents a new kind of Beijing consensus that will be hard to dislodge.

Even if China saw the benefits of changing course, domestic politics may make it hard for Xi to do so. Next year is the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party, and in 2022 China will host the Winter Olympics and the 20th Party Congress. The calendar means China is unlikely to be in a compromising mood soon.

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Given China’s clear broader direction, its conclusion that a close relationship is not possible and the domestic political constraints on Xi, what should Beijing do once Biden comes into office?

Ideally, China would engage in greater self-reflection to consider how its words and actions are generating resistance from Brazil to Belgium and from Canberra to Kansas City. Modifying its overall trajectory is what China needs to do to meet the West halfway. This suggestion is also idealistic, though, and not going to happen on Xi’s watch.

Instead, here is a modest proposal, offered only half-jokingly. China should do nothing on US policy, at least for a little while. Foreign Minister Wang Yi and State Councillor Yang Jiechi can save on plane tickets and hotel rooms and avoid jet lag.

Instead of coming to Washington with proposals that are likely to be dismissed as superficial or one-sided, China should keep its powder dry. Patience would allow the Biden administration to focus on what must be its top priorities, controlling the pandemic and reinvigorating the American economy.

And China likewise could attend to its many domestic challenges, including raising productivity and resolving (not papering over) a whole host of mounting social tensions.

Although Beijing might have accurately deduced some tectonic shifts that militate against improved ties, the United States is demonstrating that its self-correcting mechanisms are still alive and well. A more successful, confident America is more likely to be amenable to finding common ground to stabilise cooperation and competition between the two countries.

One often hears about a Confucian revival in China. Perhaps what is needed is a tad bit more of Taoism. A more patient, humble approach to foreign policy and the United States would serve the relationship better than an agitated offer of a plastic olive branch.

Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC

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