On the contrary, the Trump years have strengthened US-led international liberalism

US policy on China and Taiwan is now much clearer, Quad allies have drawn closer, the Korean peninsula status quo has been vindicated – and John Bolton has been politically neutered

Rob York

Published: 4:15am, 27 Nov 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

The United States election results four years ago caused no shortage of consternation for those who believe strongly in a US-led liberal international order.

That international order has certainly been stressed in recent years but has not crumbled in the wake of the Trump presidency. If we are being honest, there are a few ways in which the events of the past four years, both directly and indirectly due to the Trump administration, have ultimately benefited US-led international liberalism.

Here are five of them.

First, there is much less ambiguity over China. Before Trump, American policymakers had been caught in a strange limbo, as though too much work had been invested since the late 1970s in ensuring that Beijing was a partner, to start treating it as a rival. The Obama administration in particular struggled with this, as suggested by its search for the right word – “pivot” or “rebalance” – to articulate its emphasis on Asia.

But along comes a populist businessman-turned-president who believes strongly in tariffs and stacks his cabinet with China hawks, and that strategic ambiguity goes out of the window. China is now a “strategic competitor” and policymakers can adjust accordingly: criticism of China now enjoys bipartisan support and will not change after Trump leaves the office.

Second, Taiwan is no longer on the outs. For decades in the US, support for Taiwan was the love that dare not speak its name. As a consequence of the previously mentioned partnership with Beijing, Taiwan’s existence became an inconvenience to Washington – the liberal democracy in Asia we would rather not talk about.

10:22

Why has the relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan taken a turn for the worse?

Sure, we sold them weapons to discourage China from doing anything rash, but Taipei’s conservative administration of the late 2000s and early 2010s appeared to be laying the groundwork for integration, regardless of what we thought of it.

Not any more. As US lawmakers have grown wary of China’s intentions and President Donald Trump acknowledged the Taiwanese president’s existence, the US suddenly sees the preservation of Taipei’s democracy as essential to its interests.

This has coincided with a flourishing of sentiment on the island opposed to Beijing’s growing influence, the island’s embrace of marriage equality, a successful female leader in a region where this has been lacking and, most recently, a model Covid-19 response.

Simply put, the US now feels a need to defend Taiwan’s autonomy. This, too, looks unlikely to change with a new administration.

Third, there is a greater level of regional coordination. For someone who delights in the unilateral approach, discarding trade deals, climate pacts and nuclear deals with abandon, Trump has presided over an administration that appears to have kick-started cooperation among Indo-Pacific democracies.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is seeing an increase in naval exercises and coordination in pandemic response, an endeavour that fits neatly into the Biden campaign’s call for increased multilateralism.

02:49

North Korea’s new ‘monster’ intercontinental ballistic missiles on show at military parade

Fourth, the status quo on the Korean peninsula has been vindicated. Trump’s attempts to shake up this status quo may have been the most instructive lesson of his presidency.

It started with attempting to intimidate North Korea into denuclearisation with personal insults and dire threats and, when it became clear that Kim Jong-un would not back down, Trump tried another tactic his predecessors have rejected: legitimising Kim’s rule with a face-to-face meeting.

Not only did Trump not successfully charm Kim into surrendering his weapons, Kim’s nuclear and missile arsenal has expanded, and all we got out of it were “beautiful letters”.

Biden leads the US back onto a world stage that is no longer the same

In Joe Biden, the US will hopefully get a leader who sees neither unhinged threats, empty spectacle nor rash deals as useful tactics.

He will hopefully also learn from the mistakes Trump’s predecessor made – North Korea will not simply collapse if we ignore it. The extreme deviations of the past four years have only proved the status quo existed for a reason.

Finally, John Bolton is now politically homeless. Trump triggered alarm bells when he tapped Bolton as national security adviser in 2018.

01:34

Trump ‘pleaded’ for China to help him get re-elected, writes former US adviser Bolton in new book

There are few bellicose foreign policy blunders of the past 20 years Bolton has not supported – except to note that they could have been more aggressive – and the fact that the memoir of his time in the White House caused Trump embarrassment should not obscure his advocacy for disaster.

But his capacity to advocate for it is now limited – Trump has denounced him since his book’s release, and with the Republican Party still firmly in Trump’s grip for now, Bolton has few routes back to positions of power, as liberal Democrats still want nothing to do with him.

Barring a return of Bush-era neoconservatism, Bolton’s baleful shadow over US foreign policy appears to have ended with his departure from Trump’s government.

It’s not much, but it’s something.

Rob York is programme director for regional affairs at the Pacific Forum. Twitter: @RobPacForum

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