The end of 2020 is upon us, followed by the Lunar New Year and the arrival of the Year of the Ox. Neither date could come fast enough.
Hong Kong has not escaped unscathed as pandemic restrictions tighten once again. Local cases have surpassed 8,000 with more than 130 deaths. Globally, nearly 1.8 million are dead – including more than 333,000 in the United States and 145,000 in India.
Yet, less than 12 months after the novel coronavirus spread with deadly effect worldwide, there lies hope for a better year ahead amid unprecedented progress on vaccines and treatments. So, who were up and who were down in Asia in 2020?
Worst year: Asia’s Poorest
As elsewhere, it is the poorest and most vulnerable in Asia who were hit hardest by Covid-19. The World Bank reports that Asia’s most vulnerable bore the brunt of a “triple shock” – the pandemic, economic fallout from containment measures, and ensuing global recession.
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Indian women’s employment hit hard as India’s coronavirus caseload tops 10 million
Indian women’s employment hit hard as India’s coronavirus caseload tops 10 million
Amid collapsing tourism and weakened exports, hunger grows while access to jobs, technology and education shrinks. The Asian Development Bank projects that the coronavirus could push 160 million more into poverty across Asia. For the first time in 20 years, Asia’s poverty rate will rise, said the World Bank.
And so, sadly, Asia’s rapidly growing class of the “new Covid poor” receive the depressing distinction of having had the worst year.
Bad year: World Health Organization and Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
It should have been a year for the WHO to shine. Instead, the United Nations health agency and its beleaguered director general found themselves in a no-win situation, accused of not holding China accountable for its less-than-transparent handling of the coronavirus.
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Seeking the invisible: hunt for origins of deadly Covid-19 coronavirus will take scientists to Wuhan
Seeking the invisible: hunt for origins of deadly Covid-19 coronavirus will take scientists to Wuhan
Hidebound by bureaucracy and diplomacy, the WHO could say little as China delayed the release of information, allowed millions to travel from Wuhan over the Lunar New Year, and cracked down on citizen journalists and whistle-blowers such as Chinese doctor Li Wenliang, who died in February after contracting the disease he sought to warn others about.
President Donald Trump is withdrawing the US, the WHO’s largest donor, alleging that Ghebreyesus and the WHO were beholden to China. A turnaround could be at hand with a new US administration but for the WHO and Ghebreyesus, this has been a decidedly bad year.
Mixed-year: China and the Belt and Road Initiative
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s successes in crushing Covid-19 at home and constraining democracy protests and dissent in Hong Kong through a new national security law were tempered by growing international resistance to the Belt and Road Initiative.
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Hong Kong national security law has ‘chilling effect’ on freedoms, says UN human rights chief
Hong Kong national security law has ‘chilling effect’ on freedoms, says UN human rights chief
This grand infrastructure connectivity plan, launched in 2013 to connect some 70 countries with a “New Silk Road” of Chinese-financed ports, railways and highways, ran into growing resistance amid Covid-19 slowdowns and worries about debt owed to China. Australia, for example, has approved laws that allow the federal government to veto or scrap agreements between state governments and foreign countries, including a belt and road project in Victoria.
A recent Pew Research Centre survey of 14 countries revealed that attitudes towards China and Xi have reached new lows. A median of 78 per cent of respondents said they had little or no confidence that Xi would do the right thing in global affairs.
2020 was a decidedly mixed year for China despite, or perhaps because of, the reality of its engagement abroad – from conflict on the Himalayan border with India, to trade tensions and disputes over the Mekong River and the South China Sea.
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Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
Good year: Asia’s e-commerce giants
The US might have Amazon but for Asia’s e-commerce giants, 2020 was also an emphatically good year. E-commerce in Asia was on the rise well before Covid-19 but the pace of adoption quickened as lockdowns drove more consumers, from India to Japan, online.
Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba (the owner of the South China Morning Post) and JD.com racked up a record US$115 billion in sales on Singles’ Day this year. A report by Google, Temasek Holdings and Bain & Company projects that e-commerce in Southeast Asia will exceed US$150 billion by 2025, up from US$38 billion in 2019.
All this is good news for Asian e-commerce platforms such as Gojek, Grab, Tokopedia, Shopee, Shopify, Lazada, Bukalapak and Sendo. It may also herald many more good years as consumers build new digital habits in areas from fintech to telemedicine.
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The places that successfully contained Covid-19 and why others are not following their lead
The places that successfully contained Covid-19 and why others are not following their lead
Great year: Tsai-Ing Wen and Jacinda Ardern
Both women won landslide re-elections this year, but that is not all they have in common. Taiwanese President Tsai-Ing Wen and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern introduced strict lockdown measures that prevented Covid-19 community transmissions while avoiding the draconian practices adopted by China.
Taiwan, with a population of about 24 million, has reported just 770 cases and seven deaths. New Zealand, with a population of about 5 million, has recorded just 2,144 cases and 25 deaths. Arden has remained unruffled, not only through the pandemic, but through an earthquake during her live TV interview, and continues to lead her nation through climate change and terrorism challenges.
When it comes to economic numbers, Tsai and the people and businesses of Taiwan may well be a role model for all. Taiwan’s 2020 economic growth looks to outpace much of Asia’s – including that of China for the first time in decades.
So, in this most difficult of years, the best year in Asia award goes to this dynamic duo of decisive female leaders showing us the way to a better year ahead.
Curtis S. Chin, a former US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank, is managing director of advisory firm RiverPeak Group, LLC. Jose B. Collazo is a Southeast Asia analyst and project consultant at RiverPeak Group. Follow them on Twitter at @curtisschin and @josebcollazo
