Unlike Singapore, Hong Kong might be stuck with ‘zero Covid’ even if it wants to open up
- Hong Kong has a zero-tolerance policy, like the mainland, but it lacks the domestic economy to thrive in isolation and the autonomy to change course
- Singapore is the first in the region to move to a policy of living with the virus, and it could profit if Hong Kong remains hermetically sealed off
It seems it is Hong Kong’s fate to always be compared with Shanghai to the north, and Singapore to the south.
Looking south, Singapore as a sovereign country is autonomous so can be more decisive and bold, but it lacks a proper hinterland. Hong Kong has to keep in mind national priorities while enjoying the benefit of backing from, and proximity to, the world’s second-largest economy.
As a result, the number of infections has been kept low. The economy has not been seriously damaged by being hermetically sealed off; international trade in goods can continue and the domestic economy is large and robust enough to prosper. It does not depend on large inflows of foreigners to thrive.
However, the domestic economy, by itself, is not large enough to sustain us in the longer term. Our strengths are in the financial and professional services we provide on a national, regional and global level.
Thus, staff of a company based in Shanghai have reasonable access to business operations throughout China. Meanwhile, Hong Kong-based companies are in essentially the same boat as those from Singapore.
The mainland has administered more than 2.2 billion doses to its 1.4 billion people and achieved more than 75 per cent coverage. Singapore has achieved a similar result with 9.7 million jabs for its 5.6 million people. The equivalent numbers for Hong Kong are 8.8 million doses for 7.5 million people, giving rise to a full vaccination rate of around 64 per cent.
Moreover, the take-up rate of first vaccinations has dwindled to around 5,000 per day and is falling. At that speed, and in the absence of robust new initiatives, we are unlikely to reach 80 per cent coverage much before Christmas next year.
Notwithstanding these risks, several countries in Europe are moving in this direction. In our part of the world, the first mover is Singapore, whose strategy can best be described by the traditional Chinese expression of “crossing the river by feeling the stones”.
Paradoxically, in the latter case, we would also lose some of our usefulness to the nation. These are tough choices – be one city among several in the Pearl River Delta or continue to fly the flag as a top location for regional headquarters. I would feel more confident if I couldn’t hear Singapore smacking its lips at the prospect of eating our lunch.
Mike Rowse is the CEO of Treloar Enterprises