Joe Biden’s Taiwan stance spurs Beijing to ramp up its diplomatic outreach to Asia and Europe

Amid Biden’s new ‘pivot to Asia’, the US is even dragging its ally Canada into the Taiwan issue
In response, whether in Central Asia, Asean or Europe, China is out to show it is not alone against the US-led alliance

Danil Bochkov

Published: 2:30am, 3 Nov 2021

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No sooner had tensions abated after the Aukus alliance announcement and the Quad summit than China began scaling up its diplomatic efforts and rallying partners to address deteriorating relations with the United States.

Breaking from traditional US “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan, President Joe Biden recently said that America would defend the island if China attacked. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for support for Taiwan’s “robust” participation in the United Nations. And, adding further strain to US-China relations, President Tsai Ing-wen confirmed that US forces are training soldiers in Taiwan.

With dark clouds gathering, China is delivering ripostes on many fronts. It has stepped up military activities and is upgrading airbases near Taiwan; Taiwan’s Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng has said Beijing would be able to take the island by force by 2025.

China has also reinforced its diplomatic outreach and collaboration with “all-weather partners” such as Russia. The two countries recently wrapped up joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan that did not go unnoticed in Tokyo, with Chinese and Russian vessels for the first time passing through the Tsugaru Strait that was used by US warships.

The lower house of the Russian parliament extended a ballistic missile launch notification deal with China to 2030. Beijing and Moscow seem to have been in close contact over the Afghan imbroglio, including at the latest Moscow Format talks on aid for Afghanistan.

Trade between Beijing and Moscow reached a record US$102 billion in the first three quarters of the year. Energy cooperation is also intensifying, with Russia’s state-owned Gazprom exporting 7.1 billion cubic metres of gas to China in the first nine months of the year, in excess of its daily commitments.

In October, Russian electricity supplies to China through the Amurskaya-Heihe transmission line increased from five to 16 hours a day. Overall, supplies to China may nearly double in November and December, according to Russian reports. Also in October, in a clear sign of support for Moscow, Beijing chided Washington for politicising Russian gas supplies to Europe.

For its part, Moscow has reassured Beijing of its support for the one-China policy, called for issues in the South China Sea to be resolved without interference, and spoken up for Beijing’s right to test hypersonic weapons.

As the Americans refocus on the Indo-Pacific, the Chinese have prioritised the Middle East and Central Asia. Building on his March tour of the Middle East, Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Qatar last month.

In Central Asia, China is slowly rebalancing its agenda between economic and security considerations by participating in bilateral military exercises and drills with Russia and Tajikistan, as well as a multilateral anti-terror drill as part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China is also giving US$8.5 million in aid for a police base in Tajikistan.

Two sides of Asia: China’s economic priorities vs the US’ security focus

In Afghanistan, China was among the first to approach the Taliban and engage with the group, pledging US$31.3 million in aid.

Closer to home, China has not shied from diplomatic engagement either, even as tensions soar amid Biden’s new “pivot to Asia”.

Economically, the Biden administration has announced a US$100 million initiative supporting Southeast Asian nations in recovery, education, the environment and Covid-19 relief. Militarily, the US has dragged its ally, Canada, into the Taiwan issue, with both navies sending warships through the Taiwan Strait for the first time.

Seeking to counterbalance Washington’s advances, Beijing has courted Asean. Foreign Minister Wang Yi went on an Asian friendship tour in September. Beijing is also pushing for an upgrade to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Southeast Asia.

China’s diplomatic efforts seem to have translated into more support among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations: with Singapore backing China’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Indonesia and Malaysia voicing concern about the Aukus pact.

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China is also eyeing better ties with the Europe Union, which has recently unveiled an Indo-Pacific strategy of its own. Speaking by phone last Tuesday, President Xi Jinping called on his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, to maintain the EU’s autonomy in foreign policy. However, three days later, Macron was shaking hands with Biden and speaking of “stronger cooperation”.

Last week, Wang also took a trip to Europe, where Serbian officials lavished praise on their “steel friendship” with China. Notably, the tour came in the same week as a Taiwanese delegation’s visit to the region, which Beijing reprimanded.

Nevertheless, China continues to seek cooperation with Europe in such strategic areas as aerospace, artificial intelligence and biopharmaceuticals. However, the Europeans, like the Americans, speak of cooperating with the Chinese only in areas such as trade and climate change.

In a speech marking the 50th anniversary of China’s return to the UN, Xi stressed that international rules should be drawn up collectively, and not dictated by certain countries. Such a paradigm shift in geopolitics could be in China’s favour, as it enjoys the support of developing members of the UN, several of which have benefited from the Belt and Road Initiative.

But this cornerstone of Beijing’s influence could prove shaky, amid reports of developing countries being left with US$385 billion in hidden debts and states like Pakistan reconsidering Chinese-backed projects. Currently, China wants to demonstrate that it is not alone against the US-led front, but if its diplomatic efforts were to fail, would it resort to force?

Danil Bochkov is an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council