There has been much geopolitical turbulence since Nato’s classification of China as a “full-spectrum systemic rival” last year. Acrimonious US-China relations have only grown more tense. US President Joe Biden’s China policy, once hoped to provide a course correction, looks more Trump-like than not.
Meanwhile, China’s strength has continued to grow. President Xi Jinping is seeking to enshrine himself alongside other paramount leaders like Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. He is cementing his legacy in the annals of the Communist Party through the third “historical resolution”, celebrating the party’s achievements under his leadership.
Xi has also been recasting China’s profile on the global stage. Beijing has ramped up military manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait to record levels, hinting at a possible military solution and vowing “complete reunification” that could come as soon as 2025.
China appears set to attain superpower status, a title it has rejected in the past. Its military capabilities are growing, with reports of a test of its first nuclear-capable hypersonic missile. China has nearly completed its nuclear triad with significant progress on air-launched and sea-based nuclear technology while simultaneously expanding its missile silos and warhead stockpile, which could hit 1,000 by 2030.
Beijing also faces mounting external pressure as it grows stronger, as can be seen with the Quad security grouping and the Aukus agreement. China has been checking its own alliances to hedge security risks, including upgrading relations with Russia to the “best level in history”.
Moscow and Beijing have coordinated closely on global issues, including deepening defence cooperation in joint military and naval drills. They have exchanged political goodwill, such as when Moscow supported Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is “part of the People’s Republic of China” while Beijing denounced what it called politicisation of Russian gas supplies to Europe.
Reports emerged last year of Russia-China collaboration on a new design for non-nuclear attack submarines, and the two sides recently agreed on a deal for joint production of a new multipurpose heavy helicopter. Meanwhile, Russia has promoted China’s UN resolution on arms control, which appears to be aimed at Aukus and similar agreements.
After years of deteriorating ties, Russia has terminated diplomatic relations with Nato. China has accused the bloc of “ideological prejudice” following its move to upgrade China’s status to a threat. Nato appears to see threats emanating from closer Russia-China ties, something secretary general Jens Stoltenberg noted during last month’s parliamentary assembly.
Despite all this, Washington has approached Moscow and Beijing with something of a normalisation agenda recently. This is evident in the Biden-Xi online summit, the surprising US-China agreement on climate change and gradual restoration of trade talks.
On the Russian side, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland recently visited Moscow in an attempt to improve relations. US-Russia relations appear to be drifting more towards stability amid the re-establishment of security backchannels and reports of another meeting between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin later this year.
In spite of these developments, the overall tendency for US interaction with both countries is one of competition, if not rivalry. The same is true for Nato.
There are growing concerns in the West over Russia’s military build-up on the Ukrainian border, possibly as a prelude to an invasion. Accusations of masterminding the migrant crisis on the Belarus-Poland border only add to widespread acrimonious views of Moscow.
Similarly, China has faced criticism from several countries over its human rights record. Biden recently enacted tighter restrictions on Chinese telecoms firms, putting at risk earlier signs of improvement in US-China relations.
All these signs point to an emerging trend. When the United States, China and Russia try to patch the sinking boat of relations, they only manage to do enough to stay afloat. Fully repairing relations is hampered by consistently viewing each other’s actions as aimed at causing maximum damage to their opponent.
Given this mindset, any efforts to normalise relations are doomed to fall on deaf ears. As the US and its allies shift their focus to the Indo-Pacific, Nato’s inevitable involvement will present Russia and China with more evidence to support forming a joint anti-Nato front.
Danil Bochkov is an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council