After several rounds of security talks between Russia, the United States and Nato yielded no substantial progress, all sides seem to have buried any hope for a turnaround in the diplomatic and security stalemate.
Another attempt to defuse the security impasse – in talks between Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, in Vienna – was described as a disappointment by the Russian delegation, saying it saw no rationale for further meetings with the West in the short term.
Key reasons behind the failure to see eye to eye include suspicion of each other’s actions and their fear of showing weakness or losing the diplomatic initiative. Russia has demanded “ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees” that Ukraine will never become a member of the transatlantic security alliance.
Speaking from a position of force appears to have been interpreted by the US as a non-starter. Washington has countered Russia’s hard bargaining with threats of severe economic consequences if Moscow escalates its aggression against Ukraine.
Russia’s call for security guarantees does not imply any give and take, to say nothing of Washington risking the loss of its image of leadership should it agree to them. Though politicians cannot come to terms with each other, expert opinion seems to be more in agreement, however.
Russian pundits don’t expect the security crisis to be resolved any time soon. American scholars, meanwhile, have highlighted that Russia understands the US and allies will never accede to Moscow’s demands.
What is the purpose of the demands then? One reason might be to test the practical limits of US participation in European security affairs. This idea was floated by US President Joe Biden, who expects the situation to worsen with Russia moving on Ukraine because Russian President Vladimir Putin “has to do something”.
The precursor to Moscow’s security demands was accusations of the US deploying missile defence systems in Romania, Poland and Ukraine. They are reportedly equipped with elements reducing the flight time to Moscow to 10 minutes – something Russia regards as a US examination of Russian “red lines”.
To Kyiv’s displeasure, Biden has spotlighted disagreements on how to handle Russia, and even raised the prospect of Russia making a “minor incursion”. He was hauled over the coals by US media for meeting Russia halfway when conceding Ukraine would not join Nato any time soon.
However, the US is not retreating. Washington has already pledged a shipment of US$200 million worth of munitions and military equipment to Ukraine, along with giving permission to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania to provide Kyiv with US-made weapons.
Biden has said he will not deploy troops to Ukraine. But, in a sign that things could quickly spiral out of control, he is now reportedly weighing deploying 5,000 extra troops to Europe, with the possibility of ramping that up to 50,000. That would surpass the 34,000 currently stationed in Germany, which has the largest number of US troops in Europe.
The US has not shut the door to negotiations and has welcomed new rounds of talks, which is better than nothing. Even so, it is starting to sound like a broken record as all parties repeatedly lay down demands that the other cannot or will not satisfy.
The latest attempt at de-escalation took place on January 21, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. The meeting’s outcome was little different from the deadlock of previous talks, even though Russia noted slight progress as the US agreed to provide a written reply to Moscow’s demand for security guarantees.
This is not expected to change the overall course of affairs as Blinken said the written reply was unlikely to be different from Biden’s previous statements.
Given that the “Biden Doctrine” is focused on repairing and strengthening alliances and celebrating democracy around the world, as National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said recently, Russia and China are likely to remain long-term antagonists to the US. They oppose US efforts to reinforce its alliances and have opposing interpretations of democracy, which are actually autocracy according to US definitions.
Tensions are thus likely to remain high and even if the crisis in Ukraine abates, another will soon flare up elsewhere. Russia has already indicated it would not rule out deploying its military to Venezuela and Cuba, which would ring the bell for a Cold War resurgence.
Practices from those days already appear to be in place. The US is publishing bulletins on Russian disinformation campaigns, while Russia has accused US agencies of “information operations” over reports that President Xi Jinping asked Putin not to invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympics in Beijing.
Washington’s efforts to resurrect its alliance network are worrying both Russia and China. Adding to China’s complaints over the Quad and the Aukus agreement, the US and Japan sealed two new defence deals this month and are in talks to stockpile munitions in some of Japan’s southwestern islands that are near Taiwan.
China has lashed out at Washington and Tokyo over their call for greater transparency on nuclear weapons, insisting the US was the bigger threat to global stability.
Russia and China are growing closer in their assessments of US behaviour, while Washington blames both for undermining democracy and world peace. The UK Foreign Office for the first time specifically stressed its concerns over the Russia-China axis and called the two “global aggressors”.
To further build political trust, Putin is expected to brief Xi on negotiations with the US and Nato when the Russian president travels to China next month. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov did likewise when he discussed security guarantees with China’s ambassador to Moscow this month. China has expressed its support for Putin’s demand for security guarantees from the West.
While negotiations were ongoing last week, Russia joined Iran and China to carry out its first multilateral military drills of the year. Last week, Russian military personnel arrived in Belarus for joint manoeuvres next month.
All this, accompanied by Nato’s announcement of its Cold Response exercises – the largest it has conducted inside the Arctic Circle – will add to the growing rift between the West and Russia, minimising the prospects for compromise.
Danil Bochkov is an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council