Ukraine war may freeze both Russia and China out of Arctic cooperation

The war in Ukraine has brought the geopolitical importance of the Arctic region, previously thought to benefit from a disconnect from security concerns, into focus
China has made significant investments in the Arctic, but could find itself cut off from regional decision-making if it chooses to side with Russia

Nong Hong

Published: 9:15am, 11 Mar 2022

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On March 3, seven Arctic Council member states – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the United States – issued a joint statement on cooperation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The representatives of these countries said they will not travel to Russia, the current council chair, for meetings and will temporarily pause participation in all meetings of the council and its subsidiary bodies. This raises serious barriers for international cooperation in the Arctic.

Following the end of the Cold War, the long-standing perception has been that the Arctic region would benefit from a disconnect from security concerns in other parts of the world. Instead, it would focus on non-traditional security issues, including development, education, health and communication, as well as the environmental effects of climate change and melting of the Arctic ice cap.

However, the geopolitical importance of the Arctic region is coming back into focus with the military escalation in Ukraine. Though there has yet to be any significant change in military movements in the Arctic and on Russia’s northern borders, Moscow’s dominant presence in polar politics will undoubtedly have a long-term impact on regional security and cooperation in the high north.

Nato is bound to increase its role in the Arctic. The Biden administration has expanded sanctions, targeting the Russian central bank with a new economic measure that immobilises any assets it holds in the US. On March 8, Biden imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports.

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Canada, with one of the world’s largest overseas Ukrainian populations, also announced a wide array of sanctions against Russia, as well as support for Nato operations in Europe and assistance for Canadians leaving the war zone.

Sweden, Finland and Denmark said they were preparing to close their airspace to Russian planes, joining a number of European countries after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland and Sweden, the two Arctic states that are not Nato members, have intensified cooperation with Nato.

In Finland, where the “Nato question” has not been an issue for years, a citizens’ initiative demanding a referendum on applying to join Nato gathered the required number of signatures for consideration by parliament within a few days. Non-European Union member Norway said that it will join Brussels’ sanctioning of Russia and will host major Nato exercises in March as planned.

An aircraft sits on the tarmac ready to fly soldiers and military vehicles to Lithuania to reinforce Nato troops, in Gardermoen, Norway, on February 27. Photo: NTB/Reuters

Western economic sanctions to cut off Russia from the world’s financial arteries have been the most potent reaction to the Ukraine crisis to date. But the outpouring of condemnation from scientists and research organisations worldwide is also having a significant impact, and affects Russia’s Arctic development.

Outside government responses, some organisations in Western nations have quickly taken steps to cut off funding and resources and end collaborations with Russian scientists. Scientists in Ukraine have been calling for such action, while also urging Russian institutes and scientists to condemn the invasion.

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In the United States, Massachusetts Institute of Technology cuts ties with the Skolkovo Foundation, a Moscow-based non-profit organisation focusing on innovation, adding to the global academic debate over continued collaboration with Russian science.

Though it is unclear which scientific fields will be affected by funding cuts, Arctic research will definitely be hit. For example, American scientists have decided not to join Russian researchers this year in studying polar bears making their annual trip across the frozen Chukchi Sea in Alaska to Russia’s Wrangel Island for the summer.

The joint statement from the Arctic Council states, to pause participation in all meetings, is another example. Though the council doesn’t directly fund research, it helps set the scientific agenda for collaboration among member countries.

The USCG Icebreaker Healy on a research cruise in the Chukchi Sea of the Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2018. Photo: NOAA via AP

In addition to the Arctic Council, the Ukraine crisis is also likely to affect other Arctic organisations, including sub-governmental events which have provided additional opportunities for regional debate, information sharing and scientific endeavours, such as the Arctic Circle in Reykjavík, Arctic Frontiers in Tromsø and the Arctic Coast Guard Forum. These initiatives have provided opportunities for cooperation between Russia and Western governments.

It has been suggested that Arctic cooperation could continue in the form of a “Nordic Plus” arrangement among the seven Arctic states, without Russia’s participation.

China is seen as an uncertain card in the Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Against the backdrop of Russia’s strained relations with the West after the Crimea crisis, Beijing is viewed as Moscow’s primary source for capital to develop in the Arctic.

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In 2019, China and Russia signed a joint statement vowing to promote cooperation between the two countries in the Arctic area, mainly by expanding shipping routes, cooperating on infrastructure, tourism and environmental protection, and supporting scientific expeditions and research.

On February 4, on the eve of Beijing Winter Olympics, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping released a joint statement which outlined plans for deeper bilateral cooperation, including in Arctic affairs. The statement calls on the West to “abandon the ideologised approaches of the Cold War”.

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Xi meets with Putin ahead of Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Amid the Ukraine crisis, Beijing has been trying to maintain a certain degree of non-alignment on one hand. On the other, under the pressure of being widely seen as providing Russia with an economic lifeline in the wake of Western sanctions, China has started to take certain measures, including the announcement by some state banks to limit financing for Russian commodities purchases.

China has made significant investments in the Arctic and has become an active participant in Arctic governance by joining international institutions and promoting bilateral relationships with Arctic states in fields such as shipping, resource development and scientific research.

While the regional and state practices show that fostering cooperation between Arctic states and non-Arctic states, including China, is a win-win situation, it remains to be seen whether the US, Canada or the five Nordic countries would want to deepen economic cooperation or integrate China into regional decision-making forums if it chooses to side with Russia on the Ukraine crisis. Without doubt, the crisis poses challenges for China’s Arctic vision.

Nong Hong, PhD, is executive director and senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies (US)