On the South China Sea, Philippine presidential hopefuls tend to be naively nationalist or neocolonialist
- A number of candidates in the Philippine’s presidential election are calling for a tougher stance against China over its activity in the South China Sea
- Front runner Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, however, seems to realise such a stance would increase the country’s dependence on the US and provoke retaliation from China
Former defence secretary Norberto Gonzales suggested the Association of Southeast Asian Nations should adopt a majority vote on South China Sea issues, ignoring that this would go against the practice of consensus that defines Asean decision-making.
What is most worrying is that some candidates seem willing to sacrifice Philippine ideational independence to enable the US’ anti-China strategy. Not only would this keep the Philippines beholden to its former colonial master for its defence but also make the country a target for China in the outbreak of armed hostilities.
Who’s who in Philippine presidential election, and their China policies
Critics contend that Marcos Jnr does not comprehend the details of the issues. If so, he is not alone among the candidates. But more importantly, he appears to see the big picture. Like Duterte, he prefers to set the arbitration ruling aside. “It’s no longer available to us,” he said of the ruling, which was dismissed by Beijing as “a political farce”. “A bilateral agreement is what we are left with”.
He may well agree with Duterte’s strategic reasoning that US power in the region is waning and that China’s is rising. So the Philippines will have to live with China in the long term.
Duterte foresaw the dire consequences of immediately pressing the South China Sea issue and decided that the costs to the Philippine people would far outweigh transitory national pride. He saw the situation as requiring deft hedging until a time more ripe for favourable resolution.
The alternative advocated by his critics – implementing the arbitration decision – would be likely to result in no access to the Philippines’ own resources, and economic, political and even military retribution by China.
Philippines must get used to its love-hate relationship with China
In this election, the critics of Duterte’s China policy have been vociferous. But the voters are about to ignore the critics’ concerns – at least as a determining factor in their choice of president. Indeed, the anti-China, pro-US candidates supported by elite Americanophiles are losing.
Now we will see the real depth of the pro-US camp’s support for the Philippines’ flickering and fragile democracy. Will they accept this reality, or will they keep trying to effect regime change that benefits America?
Mark J. Valencia is an adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China