Why France is the dark-horse competitor to the US in Asia

Under Emmanuel Macron, France has championed an independent European foreign policy and expanded its footprint as an arms supplier
As the US frames its geopolitical battles in ideological terms, France could provide Asia’s illiberal democracies, such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, with a less difficult alternative

Mohamed Zeeshan

Published: 1:30am, 21 Apr 2022

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When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, most Western analysts argued that the Kremlin had suddenly united the West and given it a sense of purpose. But one major country has stood out for defying that trend in subtle but certain ways: France.

Even before the Ukraine invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron was determined to champion an independent European foreign policy. In 2017, soon after taking office, Macron gave a speech where he made the case for “European sovereignty”. Part of his appeal for sovereignty was in terms of reducing Europe’s dependence on the United States during the age of president Donald Trump.

“In the area of defence, our aim needs to be ensuring Europe’s autonomous operating capabilities, in complement to Nato,” Macron said, as he proposed a joint European defence force.

The advent of US President Joe Biden didn’t really shift this approach much. When Washington began warning Europe of an impending Russian invasion late last year, Macron positioned himself as Europe’s envoy to Putin, under the rationale that Russia needs to be dealt with carefully for Europe’s own security.

Yet, by doing so, Macron sometimes undermined American intelligence warnings. After a marathon meeting with Putin in early February, Macron declared that he had “secured an assurance there would be no deterioration or escalation”, even as Washington kept ringing the alarm bells.

More recently, Macron has got into a tiff with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by refusing to call Russia’s actions a “genocide”. And, unlike its Nato partners, France has largely kept its arms supply to Ukraine a secret.

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Nowhere have these traits of autonomy been more evident and significant than in the Indo-Pacific, where Macron has led a noticeable break from the US. Despite seeing China as a common threat, France has largely maintained an independent foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific.

Unlike the US and others, only 8 per cent of France’s goods trade passes through the South China Sea. That fact has given Macron the luxury of taking a more sympathetic view of Beijing, even in the face of increased Chinese aggression in the region.

When the US and its allies declared a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics over China’s human rights record, Macron decided not to join in, calling the boycott “insignificant”. In early March, during a virtual summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Macron congratulated Beijing for successfully hosting the Games.

Things came to a head last year with the contentious Aukus deal – a clear sign that France was now competing with the US in the region’s arms market. That deal resulted in Australia scrapping a heavyweight submarine deal with France, worth around US$66 billion, in favour of a competing partnership with the US and the UK.

In its aftermath, Macron told Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison that the deal had broken their “relationship of trust”. Biden later attempted to salvage the situation by publicly admitting that the US had been “clumsy” in its approach.

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The fallout over the Aukus deal was in fact emblematic of rising competition between France and the US across the broader region. In recent years, France has expanded its footprint as an arms supplier, driven by ties with the world’s largest arms importer: India.

For decades, India’s defence market was heavily dependent on the Soviet Union and then Russia. According to one estimate by the Washington-based Stimson Centre, around 85 per cent of India’s military equipment is said to be of Soviet or Russian origin. Over the years, and particularly since the start of the Ukraine war, the US has complained about those ties, as it seeks to isolate Moscow.

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But in the past few years, India has been rapidly reducing arms imports from Russia. Between 2012 and 2016, as much as 69 per cent of its arms imports came from Russia, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Between 2017 and 2021, that figure came down sharply, to 46 per cent.

The problem for Washington, however, is that New Delhi is replacing Russia with France, not the US. In 2021, around 48 per cent of India’s arms imports were from France. Russia accounted for just over 31 per cent. The US cornered under 10 per cent.

These trends have sent ripples through the global arms market: between 2017 and 2021, France exported 59 per cent more arms than between 2012 and 2016. The US only recorded a growth of 14 per cent.

A soldier salutes as he stands next to the Akash missile system during India’s 73rd Republic Day parade in New Delhi on January 26. India’s arms imports from Russia have been declining, while France has been capturing an increasing share of the Indian defence market. Photo: AFP

Some of France’s advantage is also political. As the Biden administration increasingly frames its geopolitical battles in ideological terms – pitting democracies against autocracies – France could well gain by providing Asia’s many illiberal democracies, such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, with a less difficult alternative to the US.

That is likely to be true regardless of who wins this weekend’s French presidential election, but it will be much starker if Marine Le Pen is victorious. Le Pen’s allergy to democratic crusading is widely documented.

When asked about world leaders who she admires during an interview last month, Le Pen named three right-wing nationalists: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Putin.

She has also publicly opposed imposing sanctions in response to human rights abuses, including on China. “I do not believe in threats, I do not believe in moral lessons,” Le Pen said in an interview last year.

In the wake of Trump’s disruptive foreign policy, one of Biden’s key challenges was to find renewed common ground with US allies. Biden chose to do that by making a case for moral and ideological leadership and establishing American primacy in the Indo-Pacific. On all these counts, France has proven to be a tough partner.

Mohamed Zeeshan is a foreign affairs columnist and author of Flying Blind: India’s Quest for Global Leadership