Ukraine war a reminder to Asia to move past its old rivalries and insecurities
- The sinking of the Ukraine-built Russian warship Moskva highlights the fratricidal nature of the conflict and its historical underpinnings
- While Asia is being projected as the engine of the future, its principal stakeholders have inherited security dissonances they must work hard to resolve
Nevertheless, the damage and destruction has been considerable. Casualties among those involved in the fighting number in the thousands, while millions of people have been displaced within Ukraine or fled the country. As of April 15, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights had recorded 4,633 civilian casualties in Ukraine: 1,982 killed and 2,651 injured.
There is no end in sight, either, with one commentator warning that the US and Nato will support the war to the “last Ukrainian”. There is also anxiety that, if cornered, Russian President Vladimir Putin could resort to using nuclear weapons.
On April 14, CIA director William Burns cautioned that, “Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks that they’ve faced so far, militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons.”
But he also added a note of reassurance, saying that despite the “rhetorical posturing” by the Kremlin, “we haven’t seen a lot of practical evidence of the kind of deployments or military dispositions that would reinforce that concern.”
That events have come to this is a reflection of the inadequacy of Europe’s security and political template, put in place after the Cold War ended.
In the decades that followed, it was often asserted that most of Europe, consolidated under the broad umbrella of the European Union, had arrived at a plateau of peace and prosperity and that this was enabled by the US-led Nato security architecture.
The fact that Nato had been created to deal with the Soviet threat during the Cold War and that the Soviet Union had been confined to history did not lead to empathetic “democratic” accommodation of a nascent Russia.
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Military security-related discord will be exacerbated in Europe for the next decade as a result of this war, even as the world seeks to stabilise from the Covid-19 pandemic and economic impacts of climate change.
It would be premature to dwell on “lessons” from a war that is still ongoing, but Asia may take two broad pointers. The first is that geography is immutable and shapes history.
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The near future for Asia will be one of overcoming many global challenges which threaten to sink all boats. The current Covid-19 constraints and global warming are the tip of the iceberg. The political orientation of Asia’s major nation-states is also unlikely to undergo radical change.
Old rivalries and insecurities cannot be totally erased from the collective consciousness but as American writer Susan Sontag sagely observed: “Too much remembering embitters. To make peace is to forget. To reconcile, it is necessary that memory be faulty and limited.”
Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar is director of the Society for Policy Studies, an independent think tank based in New Delhi