Why decoupling from the US will impede China’s technological progress
- China has made huge advances in science and technology in recent decades, boosted by an influx of foreign investment and a rise in international cooperation
- Now that Western powers see China as a rival and want to put a cap on its tech capabilities, the country will have to work hard to strengthen domestic efforts
This feature of China’s science and technology ecosystem has propelled its upwards trajectory, but it now also points to challenges facing the country amid a changing international environment.
Until recently, a generally friendly international environment allowed China to take advantage of the benefits offered by globalisation – which is more than an economic phenomenon – and advance economically as well as technologically.
Meanwhile, China’s best and brightest studied at leading universities around the world, garnering the most advanced knowledge of the day and often bringing it back home with them upon finishing their overseas stints. Leading international science journals published studies by Chinese scientists and their international collaborators.
What emerged was a two-way exchange between China and the rest of the world, especially developed economies.
Such a situation can be read as a harbinger of both new challenges and opportunities for China in terms of innovation. It will need a new global approach.
With the US and its allies working to constrain Chinese access to advanced technology, including through secondary sanctions on suppliers of non-US origin, there will almost certainly be an adverse impact on Chinese progress in hi-tech goods.
Despite indigenous efforts, China’s science and technology sector still faces challenges, some of which are quite daunting. The weakness in China’s research is that much of it is derivative in nature and driven by work done in developed countries. China’s patent applications have been rising, but the question is whether this has translated into quality improvement measured by transnational patents.
China’s talent pool is quite impressive in both quantity and quality. But this is mostly the result of exposure of Chinese talent to international research.
And despite having produced the highest number of overseas students earning doctorates at American universities, China has seen the majority of its nationals remain in the US after receiving their PhD degrees, although the number of those staying on has been declining recently.
With publications by Chinese taught overseas tending to have a higher impact factor than those by their peers without overseas experience, many Chinese academics are drawn to the US, Europe and other developed Western countries. This trend suggests China is not yet at a point where it can attract global talent or retain its own.
Ultimately, the exclusion of Chinese scholars from the international frontier of research will be detrimental to China’s efforts in science and technology innovation.
Cong Cao is a professor at the University of Nottingham Ningbo China