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Military vessels including Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force’s largest carrier Izumo (centre) sailing in Sagami Bay during the International Fleet Review on November 6. Japan has announced on December 16 its biggest defence overhaul in decades, raising spending, reshaping its military command and acquiring new missiles to tackle the threat from China. Photo: AFP
Opinion
Rupakjyoti Borah
Rupakjyoti Borah

Japan’s defence spending boost is inevitable in the face of security challenges

  • The security environment around Japan has changed in the past few years, given the threats from China, Russia and North Korea, and Tokyo is left with few options in response. This hefty new outlay could be a preview of things to come
Rupakjyoti Borah
Rupakjyoti Borah
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The massive new draft defence outlay proposed by Japan is a move many analysts thought would come sooner or later. So when the Kishida administration agreed to allocate 43 trillion yen (US$323.4 billion) for defence spending between 2023 and 2027 – a 50 per cent increase from the current five-year budget – it means Tokyo finally has decided to bite the bullet.

When this budget is approved by the Japanese parliament, Tokyo will use it to purchase US-made Tomahawks while its home-grown Mitsubishi Heavy Industry will upgrade and mass-produce a Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missile. The upgraded version of the Type 12 missiles will see their range increase from 200km to more than 1,000km, which will bring large parts of China in range.

In addition, Japan is moving ahead with a next-generation fighter project in collaboration with the UK and Italy. Tokyo will also purchase the 500km range Joint Strike Missile from Norway for its F-35A fighters and will arm its upgraded F-15s with Lockheed Martin’s Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile with a range of about 900km.

Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution states that “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes”. The country has come a long way since then, though. In the light of the changes in the regional geopolitical environment, even the United States is encouraging Japan to play a more proactive role.

There are several reasons for this. First, China’s behaviour in Japan’s immediate neighbourhood has Tokyo worried. This was especially seen in the aftermath of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August, when a barrage of missiles fired by China landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Second, Japan has to contend with the threat from North Korea, which has also fired a barrage of missiles recently. These have landed in Japan’s EEZ and in some cases flown over Japan.

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Terrifying moments for Japan train passengers as North Korea missile launch triggers alerts

Terrifying moments for Japan train passengers as North Korea missile launch triggers alerts

Third, Japan faces challenges from Russia in the north. The Russian invasion of Ukraine showed that China could try something similar in Taiwan. If that happens, the southern islands of Japan would be directly in the line of fire. Japan depends on energy imports and, in the case of a crisis over Taiwan, those could be severely affected.

Russia and Japan also have a dispute over a set of islands, called the Northern Territories by Japan and the Kurils by Russia.
Fourth, for years the US has asked Japan to take more responsibility for its defence. During the Upper House election campaign, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged that Japan would increase its defence budget to 2 per cent of its GDP, as some other Nato countries have done.
Now the main question is how will Japan finance this huge increase in its defence expenditure. This could annoy the Japanese public, which has been reeling under the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
People walk past a monitor showing Japan’s Nikkei 225 index at a securities firm in Tokyo on December 27. Japan’s economy contracted by 0.8 per cent in the third quarter of the year. Photo: AP
It would be a challenge convincing the Japanese public that a larger defence budget is necessary. Japanese people have had an aversion to war since World War II. When former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s government passed laws allowing the Self Defence Forces (SDF) to come to the aid of the US and other friendly nations in case of an armed attack against them, it led to protests in Japan.

Japan’s moves could provoke a new arms race in the region and rekindle memories of Japan’s wartime past. It could also lead to uneasiness among some Southeast Asian nations, which are trying to walk a fine line between the US and China as well as regional powers such as Japan.

For Japan to be a regional security leader, it must first clean house

Japan has set up an SDF base in Djibouti. It is also retrofitting its two Izumo-class helicopter carriers to allow them to host the Lockheed Martin F-35B Lighting fighter aircraft.

It is clear the security environment around Japan has changed in the past few years. Tokyo is left with few options in response. Its defence spending has seen an increase for the ninth straight year, and this hefty new outlay could be a preview of things to come.

Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a senior research fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal

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