A set of balloons fly in the air over New York City on November 24, 2022. After a Chinese balloon spotted drifting over US airspace was shot down in early February, other nations have reported similar intrusions by balloons. Photo: AFP
Opinion
C. Uday Bhaskar
C. Uday Bhaskar
US-China ‘balloongate’ fallout should hasten a review of near-space use
Reports of spy balloons and other unidentified objects drifting through countries’ airspace call for making near-space use more consensual and transparent
Meanwhile, the breakdown in trust between the world’s two major powers bodes ill for a world weary after years of pandemic and conflict
US President Joe Biden delivered the annual State of the Union address on February 7, and the references to China point to the emergence of what could be described as a low-intensity war between the world’s two major powers. This bodes ill for a pandemic-scarred, conflict-weary world seeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine lurch into the second year of a war that began last February 24.
Biden, who is likely to seek re-election next year, said in his address, “I am committed to work with China where it can advance American interests and benefit the world. But make no mistake: as we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country. And we did.”
This was in reference to the United States shooting down a Chinese balloon believed to be on a covert spying mission on February 4. In the following week, US fighter jets shot down three more objects over North America.
Subsequently, China reported an unidentified flying object near Qingdao and local authorities indicated it would be brought down. Beijing also claims the US illegally flew spy balloons over China “more than 10 times” since early 2022.
On Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin denounced US “irresponsible and seriously wrong” practices and said Beijing reserved the right to take “necessary” measures in response. A war of words is gaining traction amid visible deterioration in US-China relations.
Biden said during his address, “Let’s be clear: winning the competition with China should unite all of us. We face serious challenges across the world.” A few days later, in a rare moment of bipartisanship, the US House of Representatives unanimously passed a resolution condemning the Chinese balloon’s incursion into US airspace and describing it as a violation of US sovereignty.
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Chinese balloon row: Joe Biden says US-China relations have not taken a big hit
Chinese balloon row: Joe Biden says US-China relations have not taken a big hit
US officials have concluded that the surveillance balloon that was shot down off the South Carolina coast is part of a larger Chinese fleet of such vehicles. They also say these balloons have flown over 40 countries in espionage efforts across five continents.
Based on imagery obtained by US planes that flew close to the balloon, State Department officials said the balloon’s equipment “was clearly for intelligence surveillance and inconsistent with the equipment on board weather balloons”. They also said this information would be shared with the affected nations to alert them to Beijing’s actions and reiterate Biden’s advocacy for a coalition of nations that will stand against such intrusive actions by China.
Preliminary analysis highlights two important issues that emerge from the fallout of the spy balloon incident and the manner in which it is interpreted by the global community. The first is the visible breakdown in trust among the major powers and their inability to deal with an unforeseen exigency with national security implications. More critical is the escalation dynamic that comes into play.
In this instance, the US used a missile from a jet fighter to bring down the balloon – a sight not seen since the days of the Cold War. The symbolism of such an action by the US military against a Chinese platform is significant, and much will depend on how President Xi Jinping and his national security team respond to US actions.
Debris falls from the sky after a Chinese spy balloon was shot down by a US fighter jet over the South Carolina coast on February 4. Photo: TNS
The world is at a brittle strategic impasse. Three of its most powerful nations – the US, China and Russia – are either engaged in what is believed to be a proxy war, as seen in the conflict in Ukraine, or a war of words like that over “balloongate”. There is no forum where any kind of meaningful deliberation or conflict resolution can be considered in this context.
The second issue is China-specific and has questions that need to be raised. If the balloon in question was actually a routine meteorological data-gathering platform which went off course by thousands of kilometres towards the end of January – as Beijing has claimed – why did Chinese officials not inform their US counterparts? If undeclared US balloons were spotted over China in 2022, Beijing could have raised this with Washington.
These questions are even more relevant given that a high-level visit to Beijing by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on the cards in early February. Blinken’s visit being postponed is the first negative outcome of the spy balloon controversy.
The manner in which Beijing has handled the early stages of the balloon saga does not speak well of the quality of strategic communication between Xi and Biden’s security advisers and, by extension, the sagacity of Chinese diplomacy. A more disturbing trend is China’s use of advanced technologies and the varying degrees of concern among China’s neighbours over its intent and integrity.
India is one of many nations that have detected such intrusions by balloons, with one such vehicle being sighted over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in January 2022. The conjecture is that it was of Chinese origin, and the security implications of such surveillance have spurred internal deliberations. Could high-altitude balloons eventually be used to deliver an electromagnetic pulse and stun an unsuspecting adversary?
As the world waits for more information regarding Chinese balloons and other unidentified floating objects around the globe, the case for reviewing the use of near space from 20 to 200 kilometres in a consensual and transparent manner has become imperative.
Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar is director of the Society for Policy Studies (SPS), an independent think tank based in New Delhi
