As war in Ukraine freezes the Arctic Council, how will Asia break the ice?
- Geopolitics is complicating cooperation in the resource-rich, climate-critical Arctic region
- The five Asian observer states of China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and India need to examine their engagement in a globalised Arctic in flux
Climate change has made the Arctic and its potential resources more accessible. This has changed the geopolitical landscape, and more countries are now focused on the Arctic, including in distant Asia. For China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and India, their observer status ensures that they are involved in determining the future of the Arctic, a region they believe will affect their economic interests and the environment.
After these five states were granted observer status in May 2013, South Korea was the first to release an official Arctic policy, updating it five years later in 2018. Japan, whose Arctic initiatives were first documented in its 2013 Basic Plan on Ocean Policy, put out its official Arctic Policy in October 2015.
Finally, in March last year, India published its long-awaited Arctic policy, showing an understanding of the major tendencies in Arctic geopolitics and business.
Meanwhile, there is growing recognition among Russian decision-makers that what Russia offers China is no longer indispensable – China can find alternative cooperation partners with other Arctic states.
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But Russia may also seek investment from other Asian states - for instance, India. The Indian government has appeared eager to take advantage of “distress sales” of Russian energy assets, such as when ExxonMobil decided to give up its stake in the Sakhalin-1 project. India has long wanted to reduce its dependence on energy imports from the Middle East.
Whatever their losses or gains, the five Asian states face similar questions on their role in the Arctic Council, whose consensus-based governance structure no longer functions. Will a hotly debated “Arctic Council 2.0” gain support among non-Arctic states with a deep interest in Arctic governance?
Will these Asian observers – which have growing Arctic interests and have contributed much to Arctic research – welcome the opportunity to establish a more solid role in this region’s affairs? How will they adapt to a changing Arctic Council?
Whether the Arctic Council can continue its work on environmental protection and sustainable development without Russia’s participation remains debatable, given the decades-long tradition of scientific collaboration between nations in this region, which include Russia.
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The Arctic Council, despite uncertainty, has developed a way of working where it was able to catalyse legally binding agreements between the Arctic states and with non-Arctic states. These agreements include one on search and rescue in 2011, on oil spills in 2013, on scientific cooperation in 2017, and on a polar code in 2017. In 2021, an agreement to prevent unregulated commercial fishing in the central Arctic Ocean came into force, binding countries such as China, South Korea and Japan.
Importantly, the Arctic Council is still the only permanent forum for cooperation in the region and has played an important role in protecting its environment and promoting sustainable development.
The observer states have remained active and continue to articulate their official strategies and to pay senior-level official visits to the region. But scholarship in these states needs to move beyond questions on their role in the changing Arctic Council, and start to examine their engagement in a globalised Arctic in flux.
Nong Hong, PhD, is executive director and senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies (US)