To avert war over Taiwan, a Sino-US joint declaration may be needed

As was the case with the negotiations with Britain over Hong Kong pre-1997, China could agree to sidestep Taiwan’s political status in talks with the US to explore what impact reunification would have on American and Chinese interests

Shiu Sin Por

Published: 1:00am, 4 Mar 2023

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US Air Force General Mike Minihan made headlines when he said in a recently leaked memo that his “gut” told him the United States and China would go to war over Taiwan by 2025. Last year, The Economist named the Taiwan Strait the most dangerous place on Earth.

The case of a Chinese balloon in American airspace has fuelled hysteria in the US over Chinese aggression. Taiwan has become the most intense hotspot in US-China relations.

With People’s Liberation Army aircraft flying closer and more frequently to Taiwan, talk of war is pervasive. Taiwan recently extended mandatory military training for its young men from four months to a year. A book by a retired Taiwanese general, advocating asymmetric warfare to defend the island – essentially calling for urban guerilla warfare – was reportedly well received by US military experts and strategists.

Let’s have no illusions: war in the Taiwan Strait is possible. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification. While peaceful means are still Beijing’s preferred policy, the situation is changing.

The US is responsible for the growing tension in the Taiwan Strait. Increased arm sales, congressional action like the Taiwan Policy Act and the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, high-profile visits such as those by then-House speaker Nancy Pelosi in August last year and deputy assistant secretary of defence Michael Chase in February, are seen by Beijing as blatant interference in China’s internal affairs.

These US actions are also seen as encouragement to separatist elements in Taiwan, rendering peaceful reunification increasingly difficult and unlikely. In 2005, China passed its Anti-Secession Law which stipulates the use of force where there is no hope of a peaceful resolution of the issue.

The changing mood is also due to China’s new Taiwan policy framework. President Xi Jinping, in declaring national reunification part of China’s grand rejuvenation, the core of his political agenda to be achieved by 2049, has in effect set a deadline to reunite with the island. This ups the pressure.

The US has to understand that to bring Taiwan back into China’s fold is not just the aspiration of one man, but the demand of 1.4 billion Chinese people. One way or another, President Xi will achieve this. The question is not when, but how.

Beijing’s determination to retake Taiwan may be hard to understand for people outside the country. But it is no different from the US government deciding to take back Hawaii by force if Confederate general Robert Lee had staked out the island after his defeat in the American Civil War.

But the US also has vested interests in this situation. Taiwan is a major supplier to the US of the high-end chips it needs for both commercial and military applications. There are few, if any, alternatives to these microprocessors, which makes the issue of strategic importance.

More importantly, if Taiwan were brought back into China’s fold, it could tip the global balance of power. China’s gross domestic product, enriched by Taiwan’s economy, might finally catch up with, and even surpass, that of the US.

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Understandably, many in the US would find this unacceptable. Staying at the top in world affairs, maintaining its technology and military edge, and ensuring the US dollar remains the premium world trade and central bank reserve currency are all a matter of life and death to many in the US leadership.

To prevent war in the Taiwan Strait, some have suggested that US President Joe Biden deter Beijing by ending the policy of strategic ambiguity over Taiwan. This is naive. If Beijing were to decide to use force, its calculations would definitely include the US response, and possibly that of Japan and others.

Besides, the People’s Liberation Army seems confident of its ability to take Taiwan. The US may have run dozens of war games about Taiwan but Beijing would have prepared at least as many war plans it can respond with.

There would be war between the US and China only if Beijing has no alternative but to use force and the US decides to intervene. This should be, and can be, avoided.

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The question is, can China achieve reunification, and the US get to keep its predominant global position at the same time? The truth is, the two do not have to be mutually exclusive. Both sides should talk it out.

The Sino-British negotiation over Hong Kong could be a possible template. Initially, both sides could not reconcile their positions on the sovereignty of Hong Kong. But as 1997 approached, Britain said Hong Kong’s political status could be set aside and that it would hear out China’s policy towards Hong Kong after 1997. China readily accepted, paving the way to the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong in 1984.

The crux of this suggestion is for China and the US to sidestep the political status and future of Taiwan, focus on jointly exploring the consequences of a Taiwan under China’s central government and the impact this would have on US and Chinese interests, and then work together to resolve any problems and concerns.

A war between the US and China would be catastrophic – and it is not inevitable. General Minihan prefaced his remarks by saying: “I hope I am wrong”. There is no lack of understanding that war is good for no one. We just have to find a way to avoid it.

Shiu Sin Por is executive director of New Paradigm Foundation and former head of the Hong Kong government’s Central Policy Unit